Saturday 10 October · GB · NH Flat · Class 4
5:10 Chepstow
Lsl Racing Mares' Open National Hunt Flat Race (Category 1 Elimination) (GBB Race)
2m · Going: Good To Soft · 8 runners · £3,921
Verdict — our pick: Milly Ocean
Milly Ocean heads our ratings on 102, a clear six pounds ahead of Saint Canary Rock on 96, and that gives her the strongest case in this Class 4 contest over two miles on good to soft ground at Chepstow. Saint Canary Rock is the main danger, while Molly des Bruyeres on 89 is rated a fair way behind but still has to be respected. The other five runners are unrated by us, so there is some uncertainty, and confidence is low. Even so, Milly Ocean looks the most likely to prevail and is our selection.
Runners & best odds
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1. Milly Ocean(0)Form: 41-
J: Fern O'Brien(5) · T: Fergal O'Brien · 4yo · 11st 6lb · trainer 8% (14d)
By Crystal Ocean out of Carrolls Milan (Milan) · Owner: Oceans Twelve
Won last time out after a fourth two starts back, and Milly Ocean has run over today's trip before, making her the one to beat. A 171-day break and 160 lb are the reservations, but our 102 rating puts her top of the eight.
2. Farm Assured(0)Form: 1-P
J: Benjamin Macey(5) · T: Samuel Drinkwater · 5yo · 11st 0lb · trainer 0% (14d)
By Lauro out of Majestic Meg (Exit To Nowhere) · Owner: Mr Mrs A J Mutch
Farm Assured is unexposed and open to improvement, having won two starts back before being pulled up last time out. She returns after 153 days off and carries 154 lb, so there is limited form to lean on.
3. Northern Singer(0)Form: P1-
J: Harry Skelton · T: Dan Skelton · 5yo · 11st 0lb · trainer 14% (14d)
By Choeur Du Nord out of Shannongold (Turgeon) · Owner: Leigh Taylor
Unexposed mare who won last time out after being pulled up the start before, so there's scope for more, though she returns after 167 days off and carries 154 lb. Lightly raced, she's open to improvement on what little form we have.
4. Hottentotta(0)Debut
J: David Noonan · T: Chris Honour · 4yo · 10st 13lb · yard form 30%
By Scorpion out of Darn Hot (Sir Harry Lewis) · Owner: The Dolly Bird Syndicate
Hottentotta is an unraced filly with no form to assess, so she's wholly unexposed and open to improvement. She carries 153 lb on her bow, and any step forward would be a bonus from a clean slate.
5. Iconic Elsa(0)Debut
J: Sam Twiston-Davies · T: Nigel & Willy Twiston-Davies · 4yo · 10st 13lb · trainer 50% (14d)
By Schiaparelli out of Isla Fernandos (Flemensfirth) · Owner: Graham And Alison Jelley
Iconic Elsa is unraced, so there's no form to go on and plenty of scope for improvement. She is an unexposed filly who carries 153 lb on debut, and she can only be judged on what she shows on the day.
6. It's Luna Sea(0)Debut
J: Bryan Carver · T: Chris Honour · 4yo · 10st 13lb · yard form 30%
By Crystal Ocean out of Meenriver Glory (Fame And Glory) · Owner: The Last Orders Syndicate
Unraced and making her debut, It's Luna Sea is a blank canvas with no form to go on, so she is wholly unexposed and open to improvement. She carries 153 lb, and what she shows first time out will be the guide.
7. Molly des Bruyeres(0)Form: 7
J: Conor Brassil(3) · T: C. W. J. Farrell · 4yo · 10st 13lb · trainer 0% (14d)
By No Risk At All out of Ally Des Bruyeres (Until Sundown) · Owner: C W J Farrell
Only one recent run to go on, a seventh last time out 43 days ago, but she's yet to win in that spell and our rating of 89 puts her third of eight, making her a live threat at 153 lb. The main risk is that 153 lb burden after a break and a modest latest effort.
8. Saint Canary Rock(0)Form: 5-
J: Lorcan Williams · T: Jeremy Scott · 4yo · 10st 13lb · trainer 0% (14d)
By Kap Rock out of Honey Rosie (Byron) · Owner: James Barnard Derek Coles
Fifth on her latest outing, Saint Canary Rock has run over today's trip and is rated second-best of eight on our figures, which makes her a leading danger at 153 lb. The one concern is a 189-day absence, so fitness is the question after such a long break.
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