Saturday 10 October · GB · Hurdle · Class 4
1:35 Chepstow
Dragonbet Best Odds Guaranteed Juvenile Hurdle Race (gbb Race)
2m · Going: Good To Soft · 11 runners · £5,446
Verdict — our pick: Houndswood Willow
Houndswood Willow gets the nod at Chepstow, rated 79 on our figures and narrowly ahead of Pass The Buck on 77, which is the only edge we can lean on in a field of eleven where most of the runners are unrated. That two-pound advantage is slim rather than decisive, and Pass The Buck is the chief danger, so this is a low-confidence call over the 16 furlongs on good to soft ground. Even so, Houndswood Willow is the one we can best make a case for on the numbers, and the unrated runners would need to prove themselves to overturn that. Houndswood Willow is our selection.
Runners & best odds
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1. Confused(0)Debut
J: Harry Cobden · T: Faye Bramley · 3yo · 11st 0lb · trainer 18% (14d)
By Calyx out of Lampetia (Australia) · Owner: The Cheeky Pups
Confused is unexposed and open to improvement, with no recorded form to go on, so he is a blank canvas. He returns after 75 days off and carries 154 lb, and he is yet to win.
2. Dundeelin(0)Debut
J: Calum Hogan(5) · T: Harry Derham · 3yo · 11st 0lb · trainer 0% (14d)
By Australia out of Calipatria (Shamardal) · Owner: Mrs G S Worcester
Dundeelin is unexposed with no recorded form to go on, so this debut is a pure step into the unknown for the gelding. He carries 154 lb, and with a clean slate there should be improvement to come.
3. Houndswood Willow(0)Form: 32
J: David Bass · T: Tom Dascombe · 3yo · 11st 0lb · OR 96 · trainer 25% (14d)
By Starspangledbanner out of Coral Shell (High Chaparral) · Owner: G Shaughnessy
Houndswood Willow is in cracking nick, runner-up last time out and a third two starts back, and he returns after just 18 days, so he should be fit. Our rating of 79 makes him the one to beat, with 154 lb on his back the only slight concern.
4. Pass The Buck(0)Form: 3
J: Paul O'Brien · T: Harry Derham · 3yo · 11st 0lb · trainer 0% (14d)
By Australia out of Zofar Zogood (Zoffany) · Owner: Olbg Racing (pass The Buck)
Pass The Buck was third last time out just 14 days ago, so he arrives fit and fresh, and he has run over today's trip before; our rating of 77 puts him second of 11. The one concern is the 154 lb he carries, with the horse yet to win in his recent form.
5. Roly Mo(0)Debut
J: Ciaran Gethings · T: Mrs Jane Williams · 3yo · 11st 0lb · trainer 0% (14d)
By Masterstroke out of The Missus (Presenting) · Owner: Mrs Jane Williams
Roly Mo is an unexposed debutant with no recorded form, so there's plenty of scope for improvement. The gelding shoulders 154 lb, and a first outing will tell us far more than any profile can.
6. Sacre Chef(0)Debut
J: Harry Skelton · T: Dan Skelton · 3yo · 11st 0lb · trainer 14% (14d)
By Karaktar out of Tazkar (Authorized) · Owner: Colm Donlon
Sacre Chef is effectively unexposed, with no recorded form to go on, and returns after 216 days off. He carries 154 lb, and with so little on his page there is scope for improvement.
7. Solar Jet(0)Debut
J: Liam Harrison · T: Dan Skelton · 3yo · 11st 0lb · trainer 14% (14d)
By Al Kazeem out of Star Jet (Teofilo) · Owner: Chris May Mullin
Solar Jet is unexposed with no recorded form to go on, so he's open to improvement. He returns after 114 days off and carries 154 lb, which makes this a hard one to pin down.
8. Tokyo Tower(0)Debut
J: Jack Tudor · T: Oliver Greenall & Josh Guerriero · 3yo · 11st 0lb · trainer 0% (14d)
By Japan out of Salve Annetta (Mastercraftsman) · Owner: The Sefton Syndicate
Tokyo Tower is unexposed with no recorded form to go on, so any improvement is a bonus. He returns after 83 days off and carries 154 lb, a lightly raced profile that leaves him open to progress.
9. Valpovo(0)Debut
J: Kielan Woods · T: Ian Williams · 3yo · 11st 0lb · trainer 9% (14d)
By Zarak out of Zagabria (Dansili) · Owner: Sue Howell
Valpovo is effectively unexposed, with no recorded form to go on, so he looks open to improvement. He returns after 98 days off and carries 154 lb, so he arrives fresh rather than race-sharp.
10. Whistling Dave(0)Debut
J: Charlie Todd · T: Dan Skelton · 3yo · 11st 0lb · trainer 14% (14d)
By Waldgeist out of Salmon Rose (Iffraaj) · Owner: Dan Skelton
Whistling Dave is totally unexposed, with no recorded form to go on, so he arrives for his debut with plenty of scope to improve. He carries 154 lb, and with nothing yet shown, everything here points to potential rather than proof.
11. Two Steppin(0)Form: P
J: Callum Pritchard · T: Barry Murphy · 3yo · 10st 7lb · trainer 0% (14d)
By Poet's Word out of Banogue's Bonus (Shirocco) · Owner: A Evans
Lightly raced and unexposed, Two Steppin was pulled up last time out just 14 days ago, so that run tells us little, and she remains yet to win with scope to improve; she carries 147 lb today.
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