Saturday 10 October · GB · Hurdle · Class 1
4:02 Chepstow
Wasdell Group Silver Trophy Handicap Hurdle Race (Premier Handicap) (GBB Race)
2m3½f · Going: Good To Soft · 17 runners · £42,712
Verdict — our pick: Take No Chances
Take No Chances is our selection, and she gets the nod over Boombawn on a progressive profile that suggests there is more to come, with only 3 lb separating them on our figures (150 against 153). Boombawn is the obvious danger as the top-rated runner, narrowly ahead on paper, while Wellington Arch and Rambo T, both on 140, are next best and sit a good way behind the leading pair. In a 17-runner Class 1 over 20 furlongs on good to soft, a stamina test with plenty of potential trouble, this looks a tight call, but Take No Chances' upward trajectory makes her the one to side with. Take No Chances is the selection.
Runners & best odds
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1. Take No Chances(0)Form: 23342-
J: Harry Atkins(5) · T: Dan Skelton · 8yo · 12st 0lb · OR 148 · trainer 14% (14d)
By Milan out of Coscorrig (Pistolet Bleu) · Owner: Garry Wilson
Take No Chances arrives with a second last time out and a tally of placed efforts in her last five runs, yet to win in that spell, and she has run over today's trip and going before. A 182-day break is the one reservation, but our rating of 150 backs her under 168 lb.
2. Wellington Arch(0)Form: /9211-
J: Jonjo O'Neill Jr. · T: Jonjo & A.J. O'Neill · 7yo · 11st 10lb · OR 144 · trainer 0% (14d)
By Blue Bresil out of Moyliscar (Terimon) · Owner: M J Gaskell
Winner last time out and again two starts back, with a second three starts back, Wellington Arch arrives in cracking form and has run over today's trip and going before. The one concern is a 183-day absence, while 164 lb is a stiff burden.
3. Glynn Brae(0)Form: 15441-
J: Toby McCain-Mitchell(3) · T: Nigel & Willy Twiston-Davies · 6yo · 11st 2lb · OR 136 · trainer 50% (14d)
By Califet out of Lady Rhinestone (Presenting) · Owner: Anne Marie Jamie Shepperd
Glynn Brae won last time out and again five starts back, with a fourth two starts back and another fourth three starts back in between, and he has run over today's trip and going before. A 195-day absence and 156 lb on an official mark of 136 temper things, and our rating of 135 has him sixth of 17.
4. Boombawn(0)Form: 38098-
J: Jack Andrews · T: Dan Skelton · 9yo · 11st 1lb · OR 135 · trainer 14% (14d)
By Dylan Thomas out of Well Clad (Oscar) · Owner: Bullen Smith Faulks
Boombawn has run over today's trip and going before, and our ranking puts him top of 17 on a figure of 153, well clear of his official 135 while carrying 155 lb. The risk is a poor recent run of finishes, with an eighth last time out and 183 days off.
5. Rambo T(0)Form: 8000-6
J: Lewis Saunders(5) · T: Olly Murphy · 9yo · 11st 0lb · OR 134 · trainer 22% (14d)
By Ocovango out of Biddy's Boru (Brian Boru) · Owner: Mpb Contractors Limited
Rambo T has run over today's trip and going before, and our figures rate him a leading danger at 140 and fourth of 17, with an official mark of 134 offering scope off 154 lb. The risk is clear: he is winless in his last five and has been off for 148 days.
6. Ike Sport(0)Form: 6692-1
J: Harry Cobden · T: Neil Mulholland · 8yo · 10st 13lb · OR 133 · trainer 8% (14d)
By Spanish Moon out of Safraniere (Bering) · Owner: The Chosen Few
Won last time out and a second two starts back give Ike Sport a bright recent profile, and he has run over today's trip and going, but 148 days off is a concern and 153 lb is a hefty burden for an eighth-ranked runner on our rating.
7. Moon Chime(0)Form: 199-16
J: Nick Slatter(3) · T: David Killahena & Graeme McPherson · 8yo · 10st 13lb · OR 133 · trainer 25% (14d)
By Pether's Moon out of Bella (Johann Quatz) · Owner: Dl Adams Ja Adams G Mcpherson
Moon Chime has won twice in his last five starts, a winner two starts back after a sixth last time out, and he has run over today's trip and going, but a pair of ninths earlier in that spell and a 34-day break temper enthusiasm. Carrying 153 lb off 133, he looks a midfield sort, and our rating of 135 ranks him fifth of 17.
8. Masked Man(0)Form: /1219-
J: J J Slevin · T: Nigel & Willy Twiston-Davies · 5yo · 10st 12lb · OR 132 · trainer 50% (14d)
By Masked Marvel out of Mangenie (Irish Wells) · Owner: Simon Munir Isaac Souede
Masked Man was beaten into ninth last time out and returns from 182 days off, and he carries 152 lb, so he is hard to fancy; our rating ranks him 14th of 17. In his favour, he won two starts back and four starts back, and has run over today's trip and going.
9. The Mighty Celt(0)Form: 28367-
J: Harry Skelton · T: Dan Skelton · 4yo · 10st 9lb · OR 131 · trainer 14% (14d)
By Walk In The Park out of Cathmart Desjy (Maresca Sorrento) · Owner: Gwmr Property Limited
Winless in his last five, The Mighty Celt has a third and a second in that spell and has run on today's going, but he was only seventh last time out and returns after 183 days off. Carrying 149 lb off 131, he looks a mid-pack type on our rating.
10. Melon(0)Form: /3821-
J: Jack Tudor · T: Oliver Greenall & Josh Guerriero · 5yo · 10st 9lb · OR 129 · trainer 0% (14d)
By Adlerflug out of Mrs Miller (Lord Of England) · Owner: Rockerfellers
Melon won last time out and was second two starts back, so he arrives in good heart after 21 days off, and he has run on today's going before. Carrying 149 lb off a mark of 129 and ranked 12 of 17 on our rating, he looks more of a midfield type than a leading contender.
11. Daylatedollarshort(0)Form: 24112-
J: Sean Bowen · T: Olly Murphy · 5yo · 10st 7lb · OR 127 · trainer 22% (14d)
By Wings Of Eagles out of Hannah Mori (Mahler) · Owner: A J Wall G Hicks
Second last time out, with a winner two starts back and another three starts back, he arrives in good recent form and has run over today's trip and going before. A 165-day absence and 147 lb on his back temper the case, and our rating of 130 ranks him only 11th of 17.
12. Rightsotom(0)Form: 34F3P-
J: Brendan Powell · T: Joe Tizzard · 7yo · 10st 6lb · OR 126 · trainer 0% (14d)
By Maxios out of Riviere Diamant (Oratorio) · Owner: Mrs Mary Ann Middleton
Rightsotom was pulled up last time out and returns after 210 days off, though he was third two starts back and has run over today's trip and going before; our rating of 134 sits against a 146 lb burden and an official mark of 126.
13. Kocktail Bleu(0)Form: 22214-
J: Freddie Gordon · T: Chris Gordon · 6yo · 10st 5lb · OR 125 · trainer 0% (14d)
By Magneticjim out of Tunique Bleue (Panoramic I) · Owner: Cox Russell Lloyd Finnegan Scanlon
Kocktail Bleu was fourth last time out, and a winner two starts back, with three seconds in the mix over his last five, but he returns after 168 days off and carries 145 lb off an official mark of 125. He has run on today's going, and our rating of 131 ranks him tenth of 17.
14. Our Guide(0)Form: 51-112
J: Gavin Sheehan · T: Jamie Snowden · 5yo · 10st 4lb · OR 124 · trainer 18% (14d)
By Soldier Of Fortune out of Madgehil (Anshan) · Owner: W J Swindell
Our Guide won three of his last five and was second last time out, but a 92-day layoff and 144 lb are hard to ignore. He has run over today's trip and going, yet our rating of 126 ranks him only 15th of 17.
15. Washington(0)Form: 07580-
J: Paul O'Brien · T: Harry Derham · 10yo · 10st 4lb · OR 124 · trainer 0% (14d)
By Westerner out of Present Leader (Presenting) · Owner: Syders Burkes
Washington is winless in his last five, with an unplaced effort last time, an eighth two starts back and a fifth three starts back, and he returns after 165 days off. He has run on today's going and our rating of 128 is only 13th of 17, so he is hard to fancy at 144 lb.
16. Letterston Lily(0)Form: /1-812
J: Shane Fenelon(5) · T: Mickey Bowen · 6yo · 10st 4lb · OR 124 · trainer 18% (14d)
By Getaway out of Whenskiesareblue (Presenting) · Owner: Vernon Anna Phillips
Letterston Lily has been in good heart, a second last time out, and a winner two starts back, with another win four starts back, and she's fresh enough after 17 days. But carrying 144 lb off 124, and ranked 16th of 17 on our figures, she's hard to fancy here despite having run over this trip and going.
18. Perseus Way(0)Form: 5/3112
J: Harry Reed · T: Tristan Davidson · 7yo · 10st 2lb · OR 122 · trainer 14% (14d)
By Sea The Stars out of Bint Almatar (Kingmambo) · Owner: J Monkhouse R De Robeck A Miller
Hard to fancy at the foot of our figures, ranked 17th of 17, yet his form is far from poor: second last time out, and a winner two starts back and again three starts back. He has run over today's trip and going, but 142 lb is a big burden.
NR. Handlethekettle(0)Form: /311-2
J: Isabelle Ryder(5) · T: Jamie Snowden · 7yo · 10st 2lb · OR 122 · trainer 18% (14d)
By Youmzain out of Tooreen (Gold Well) · Owner: Rc Syndicate Viii
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