Saturday 10 October · GB · Hurdle · Class 4
4:35 Chepstow
Dragonbet John Ayres Memorial Handicap Hurdle Race
2m7½f · Going: Good To Soft · 18 runners · £5,281
Verdict — our pick: Jupiter Allen
Jupiter Allen is our selection for this 24-furlong test at Chepstow, and his progressive profile is the reason to side with him over Into The Park, who is rated just a pound better on our figures. With a gap that narrow, the upward trajectory counts for more than a marginal edge on paper, and the ground is good to soft. Into The Park, Reallyntruthfully and Magical King are the main dangers, all within three pounds of our pick, so this is a competitive 18-runner event and not one for strong claims. Jupiter Allen gets the nod on his improving profile.
Runners & best odds
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1. Reallyntruthfully(0)Form: /16P4-
J: Aamilah Aswat(7) · T: Kim Bailey & Mat Nicholls · 7yo · 12st 2lb · OR 122 · trainer 50% (14d)
By Jet Away out of Style Of Campile (Heron Island) · Owner: Nothingbutthetruth
Reallyntruthfully signed off with a fourth last time out and has a win four starts back, while he has run on today's going and carries 170 lb. Our rating of 124 ranks him third of 18, but the main risk is a 181-day absence, so fitness is a worry.
2. Jupiter Allen(0)Form: 4231P-
J: Lorcan Williams · T: Chester Williams · 7yo · 12st 1lb · OR 121 · trainer 0% (14d)
By Castle Du Berlais out of Bienvenue Allen (Network) · Owner: Ron Watts
Jupiter Allen is a winner two starts back, with a third and a second before that, and he has run over today's trip and on this going before; a pulled-up last time and 210 days off are the reservations, but 169 lb and a 121 mark leave him with a case.
3. Magical King(0)Form: 55P33-
J: Charlie Hammond · T: Stuart Edmunds · 7yo · 12st 1lb · OR 121 · trainer 22% (14d)
By Diamond Boy out of Tipping On (Beneficial) · Owner: The Garratt Family
Back-to-back thirds last time out and two starts back show Magical King heading in the right direction, and he has run over today's trip and going before, while our rating of 123 ranks him fourth of 18. The risk is a 196-day absence, with 169 lb to carry.
4. Freshers Week(0)Form: 2333P-
J: Daire McConville(7) · T: Charlie Longsdon · 5yo · 11st 12lb · OR 118 · trainer 0% (14d)
By Crystal Ocean out of Ouro Verde (Presenting) · Owner: Freshers Week Syndicate
Pulled up last time out and off 165 days since, but Freshers Week had been placed in all four runs before that, a third two starts back and a third three starts back, and has run over today's trip and going. Winless in his last five and carrying 166 lb, he's a midfield sort.
5. Got A Dream(0)Form: /1161-
J: Sean Houlihan · T: Nicky Martin · 7yo · 11st 11lb · OR 117
By Getaway out of Well Composed (Bach) · Owner: Bradley Partnership
Three wins in his last four starts, including a winner last time out, is eye-catching form, and he has run over today's trip and going before, but 176 days off is a long absence and 165 lb is a big burden. Our rating of 116 ranks him tenth of 18.
6. Gold For Alec(0)Form: P31-76
J: Ben Poste · T: Tom Symonds · 6yo · 11st 9lb · OR 115 · trainer 0% (14d)
By Planteur out of Gold For Tina (Lando) · Owner: Gun Dog Gin Limited
Gold For Alec won three starts back but has since finished a seventh, then a sixth last time out, so the form is cooling. He has run over today's trip and on this going, and 15 days since his last outing is fine, though 163 lb is a hefty burden for a mid-ranked runner.
7. Into The Park(0)Form: P347-4
J: David Bass · T: Max Comley · 7yo · 11st 9lb · OR 115 · trainer 40% (14d)
By Walk In The Park out of La Sarrazine (Medicean) · Owner: S W Racing
Fourth last time out and a third four starts back give him a solid base, and he has run over today's trip and going before; our rating of 126 puts him top of 18. The risk is a 155-day absence, plus 163 lb on an official mark of 115, with him yet to win in his last five.
8. Golden Maverick(0)Form: 1F/5-2
J: Lorcan Murtagh · T: Tim Vaughan · 6yo · 11st 9lb · OR 115 · trainer 0% (14d)
By Zarak out of Waritta (Canford Cliffs) · Owner: Tim Vaughan Racing Club Ultimate
Golden Maverick was second last time out, and he won four starts back, though a fall three starts back and a fifth two runs ago muddy the picture. He has run on today's going, but 78 days off and 163 lb are what hold him back, and our 118 ranks him seventh of 18.
9. Punxsutawney Phil(0)Form: 60142/
J: Tom Midgley(3) · T: Mark Walford · 9yo · 11st 7lb · OR 113 · trainer 0% (14d)
By Shirocco out of Chilly Filly (Montjeu) · Owner: Ursa Major Racing Ltd Partner
Punxsutawney Phil was second last time out, and a winner three starts back, with a fourth two starts back, and he returns fresh enough after 23 days; he has run over today's trip and going before. Carrying 161 lb off 113 is a burden, and our rating of 116 ranks him only 11th of 18.
10. Balboa(0)Form: 331-43
J: Callum Pritchard · T: Seamus Mullins · 6yo · 11st 7lb · OR 113 · trainer 33% (14d)
By Mondialiste out of Reachforthestars (Sea The Stars) · Owner: Mrs Kate Kenyon
Hard to fancy at 102 days since his last run and carrying 161 lb, with our figures ranking him 15th of 18, though a third last time out, a fourth two starts back and a winner three starts back show he has been competitive, and he has run on today's going.
11. Tzarmix(0)Form: 12224-
J: Ciaran Gethings · T: Alastair Ralph · 8yo · 11st 6lb · OR 112 · trainer 0% (14d)
By Gemix out of Tzarine De La Mone (Tzar Rodney) · Owner: Fothergill Lloyd Sparey
Tzarmix was beaten into fourth last time and has been runner-up in three of the starts before that, but 171 days off and 160 lb on his back make him hard to fancy. He has run over today's trip and going, yet our figures rank him 14th of 18.
12. Queens Venture(0)Form: P-4225
J: Bryan Carver · T: Dean Summersby · 6yo · 11st 6lb · OR 112 · trainer 0% (14d)
By Westerner out of Bobbi's Venture (Bob Back) · Owner: Little Acres Racing
Fifth last time out after a pair of seconds, Queens Venture has been in the frame lately and has run over today's trip and going, but she is winless in her last five and returns after 36 days under a big 160 lb. Our rating of 116 puts her ninth of 18.
13. Jager Time(0)Form: -43213
J: Fern O'Brien(5) · T: Fergal O'Brien · 7yo · 11st 3lb · OR 109 · trainer 8% (14d)
By Champs Elysees out of Ballyknock Mist (Golan) · Owner: The Fob Racing Partnership 12
Jager Time has been in the frame in four of his last five, including a win two starts back and a third last time out, and has run over today's trip and going before. At 157 lb, though, he carries a hefty weight, and our rating of 107 ranks him only 16th of 18.
14. Jaytee(0)Form: /503-6
J: Sam Twiston-Davies · T: Ian Williams · 11yo · 11st 3lb · OR 109 · trainer 9% (14d)
By Schiaparelli out of Archway Copse (Anshan) · Owner: J Tredwell
Jaytee was sixth last time out, though a third two starts back shows he can still give a good account, and he has run over today's trip and going before. Winless in his last four, he carries 157 lb off 109 after 36 days off, with our rating of 118 ranking him sixth of 18.
15. Amatchmadeinheaven(0)Form: /014-4
J: Miss Amber Jackson-Fennell(7) · T: Nigel & Willy Twiston-Davies · 5yo · 11st 2lb · OR 108 · trainer 50% (14d)
By Schiaparelli out of Heaven Scent (Phoenix Reach) · Owner: Miss Amber Jackson Fennell
Hard to fancy after 129 days off, and ranked 17 of 18 on our figures with 156 lb to carry. He was fourth last time out, and a fourth two starts back, and a winner three starts back, and has run on today's going before.
16. Torrent(0)Form: -45333
J: David Noonan · T: Nigel Hawke · 5yo · 11st 1lb · OR 107 · trainer 0% (14d)
By Camelot out of Ighraa (Tamayuz) · Owner: Peter Smith Partner
Three straight thirds, most recently 25 days ago, show Torrent is in good heart, and he has run over today's trip and going before. Yet to win in his last five starts, he carries 155 lb off 107, while our rating of 115 ranks him only 12th of 18.
17. Muskerry Rock(0)Form: 1221P3
J: Sean Bowen · T: Mickey Bowen · 7yo · 11st 1lb · OR 107 · trainer 18% (14d)
By Shirocco out of One Treasure (Mahler) · Owner: Mickey Bowen
Muskerry Rock was third last time out just 12 days ago, with a winner three starts back, but he was pulled up two starts back and carries 155 lb, a stiff burden. He has run over today's trip and going, though our figures rank him 13th of 18.
18. Faded Fantasy(0)Form: -58548
J: Jack Tudor · T: Christian Williams · 7yo · 10st 6lb · OR 98 · trainer 0% (14d)
By Make Believe out of Miss Dela (King's Best) · Owner: Christian Williams Racing Club
Faded Fantasy is winless in his last five, finishing eighth last time out and never better than a fourth two starts back, which makes him hard to fancy at 146 lb off 98. He has run over this trip and on this going, and 25 days since his last run is no concern, but our figures rank him last of 18.
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