Everton vs Wolves Betting Tips & Preview

Wolverhampton Wanderers to win

Wolves are the pick to win this Carabao Cup third round tie at Goodison Park, and it comes down to which side looks more capable of actually finding a goal when it matters. Everton have gone three straight games without a win, drawing each of their last three outings, while Wolves have won three of their last five and go into this one on the back of victory over Sheffield United. Our model puts Wolverhampton's win probability at 38.8%, comfortably the most likely single outcome across the three results in this match, and the best price we can find for that outcome is 5.60 with site-listed bookmakers. That price is simply context for anyone looking to back it - the case for the pick rests on Wolves' better recent momentum and a head-to-head record that shows they're perfectly capable of getting the better of Everton, not on any perceived gap between model and market.

Recent Form

Everton's form line reads as one of a side that has stopped losing but has also stopped winning. They beat Crystal Palace and Preston North End in their opening two fixtures of this run, but since then it's been draws against Bournemouth, Manchester United and Tottenham Hotspur - three games, no goals conceded to the opposition being enough to separate them, but no cutting edge to find a winner either. That's a pattern of a team that's solid without being spiky, and against a cup opponent with recent wins under their belt, that lack of a killer instinct could be costly.

Wolves, by contrast, arrive with more variety in their results but more actual victories to show for it. They won away at Sheffield Wednesday, beat Stoke City at home, then lost to West Ham before drawing with Birmingham City, and most recently won away at Sheffield United. Three wins in five outings, including their last one, suggests a team that's finding ways to get over the line even when the away form has been mixed. That's the kind of momentum that travels well into a cup fixture against a side who've forgotten how to win.

Head-to-Head

The head-to-head record between these two sides is close, and that in itself supports the idea that this isn't a one-sided fixture. Across the last five meetings, Everton have won twice, Wolves have won once, and two have been drawn. Wolves' win came in September 2025, while Everton's victories came in August 2025 and back in December 2024, with draws in January 2026 and March 2025.

What stands out is how evenly matched these two clubs have been across recent seasons - no side has strung together a run of dominance, and results have swung game to game rather than settling into a clear pattern. That tightness in the head-to-head reinforces the idea that this fixture is genuinely competitive, and it does nothing to suggest Everton should be considered clear favourites on home advantage alone.

Team News

Everton's only listed absence is Christian Nørgaard, who's been out since 20 August 2026 with a groin injury. Beyond that, there's no further team news provided for the home side, so it should be read as a squad otherwise able to pick from a fuller group.

Wolves have a longer list of unavailable players. Enso González is out, with an unknown injury logged from January 2025 and a separate knee injury from February 2026. Sasa Kalajdzic and Mario Lemina are both listed as sidelined with unknown injuries dating back to January 2025, while goalkeeper Sam Johnstone has been out since April 2026 with a shoulder injury. That's a notable number of absentees for Wolves, though the nature and duration of some of those knocks means it's hard to say with certainty how much they're currently affecting matchday selection - what we can say plainly is that this is the information on record, and it's more extensive than what's been reported for Everton.