Liverpool vs Tottenham Betting Tips & Preview

Liverpool to win

Liverpool are the pick to see off Tottenham Hotspur in this Carabao Cup third-round meeting, and the case rests largely on how each side has fared lately and how these two have squared off historically. Jurgen Klopp's men, for all the draws dotted through their recent schedule, haven't lost in their last five outings, while Spurs arrive having been beaten twice and having failed to win any of their last three. Add in a head-to-head record that heavily favours the Reds over recent seasons, and backing the home side at Anfield looks the most sensible read of this tie. Our model puts Liverpool's win probability at 55%, with the best price on offer at 1.80 - a fair reflection of a contest where the champions elect should have enough to get the job done, even accounting for cup rotation possibilities.

Recent Form

Liverpool's last five fixtures paint a picture of a team ticking over rather than steamrolling opponents: draws against Newcastle United, Nottingham Forest and Fulham sandwich wins over Ipswich Town and a notable victory against Atlético de Madrid. That's three draws and two wins from the sample, no defeats, and crucially a scalp against continental opposition in Atlético that suggests there's real quality in this squad when they need to find it. The draws shouldn't be dismissed lightly, but there's a resilience to a run that includes zero losses.

Tottenham's recent form is patchier. They lost away to Brentford, bounced back with a win over Charlton Athletic, then suffered another defeat at home to Newcastle United before drawing with Nottingham Forest and Everton in their last two. Two defeats and two draws in a five-game stretch, with only the Charlton win offering much cheer, points to a side short on consistency heading into this fixture. Compared to Liverpool's unbeaten sequence, Spurs look the shakier of the two on current evidence.

Head-to-Head

The head-to-head record over the last five meetings favours Liverpool clearly: three wins, one draw and just a single defeat from Tottenham's perspective. Liverpool won at home on 2025-02-06 and 2025-04-27, and also came away from White Hart Lane (or wherever the away leg was staged) with a win on 2025-12-20. Spurs' solitary success in this run came back on 2025-01-08, while the two sides played out a draw at Anfield as recently as 2026-03-15. That pattern of Liverpool dominance, particularly in matches at Anfield, adds further weight to the case for backing the hosts here.

Team News

Liverpool have a handful of absentees to factor in. Federico Chiesa is out, with eligibility issues layered on top of a muscle injury that's kept him sidelined since August, while Wataru Endo is also unavailable through an eligibility issue. Hugo Ekitiké remains a long-term absentee following an Achilles tendon rupture back in April, and Joe Gomez continues to recover from a muscle injury picked up in July. None of these are enough to fundamentally reshape Liverpool's approach, but they do thin out options in certain areas.

Tottenham's injury list is arguably more concerning in terms of attacking impact. Xavi Simons and Wilson Odobert are both out long-term with cruciate ligament tears, while James Maddison has been sidelined since late August with a shoulder injury. Mykhaylo Mudryk is a more recent addition to the list, ruled out with an ankle injury since September 9th. Losing that much creative and attacking talent in one go is a significant blow for Spurs and feeds into the broader picture of a team that looks light on options heading into this game.