Sunderland vs Hull Betting Tips & Preview

Sunderland to win

Sunderland get the nod here to see off Hull City in this Carabao Cup third round tie, with home advantage and a broadly stronger recent run tipping the balance in their favour. Our model puts the chances of a Sunderland win at 42.9%, which sits below what the widely available price of 1.80 implies, but that gap isn't the reason for the selection - it's simply the outcome our numbers rate as most likely once you weigh up the two sides' form and history. Sunderland have won three of their last five outings, including victories over Chelsea and Fulham, and they head into this one only just short of a winning run after a draw at Brentford. Hull have been competitive too, but there's enough in Sunderland's favour on home soil to make this the pick.

Recent Form

Sunderland's last five completed fixtures show a team capable of good results against varied opposition. They won away at Everton and at home to Chelsea, before a blip against Ipswich Town who won that game. They bounced back with a home win over Fulham and then drew away at Brentford in their most recent outing. That's three wins, one loss and a draw from their last five - a reasonably solid platform heading into this cup tie.

Hull City arrive with an even more eye-catching sequence. They won at home against Middlesbrough, then beat Manchester United at home, edged past Stoke City on penalties, and followed that up with a win away at Coventry City. Their run of four straight victories was halted by a draw at home to Aston Villa in their last game. On paper, Hull's recent form reads as strong as, if not stronger than, Sunderland's, which makes this a closer contest than the head-to-head alone might suggest.

Head-to-Head

The last five meetings between these two sides have been tightly contested, with Sunderland holding a slight edge at 2-1-2 from their perspective. Hull City won the most recent meeting in February 2025, and they also won back in January 2024. Sunderland's victories came in October 2024 away at Hull and in December 2023, also away from home, while the sides played out a draw back in April 2023. There's no clear pattern of dominance from either side across this recent history - it's been an evenly matched fixture more often than not, with the result often going the way of small margins rather than one team overpowering the other.

Team News

Sunderland have one absentee to note, with Habib Diarra out through a hamstring injury since the end of August 2026. Beyond that, there are no further unavailable players listed for the home side.

Hull City have a longer list of concerns. Eliot Matazo remains out with a cruciate ligament tear picked up back in April 2026, Darko Gyabi has been sidelined since January 2026 with a groin injury, and Joe Gelhardt is also out, having suffered an ankle injury in mid-August 2026. That's three players unavailable for Hull compared to Sunderland's one, which could matter over the course of this tie, particularly if squad depth is tested.