Newcastle vs Hull Betting Tips & Preview

Newcastle United to win

Newcastle United go into this Premier League fixture as the pick to beat Hull City, and the case for it rests largely on the gulf in quality that's been evident across recent weeks. The Magpies have banked three wins from their last five outings, including victories over Tottenham on the road and Millwall away, while Hull have won only once in their last five and looked shaky against sides of a similar level to Newcastle. Our model puts Newcastle's win probability at 47.4%, which isn't overwhelming in isolation, but relative to a draw or a Hull win it's still the clearest single outcome, and that's the basis for the selection. The 1.62 on offer is simply the market's take and isn't the reason we're backing the hosts.

Recent Form

Newcastle's form has been solid without being spotless. They beat West Bromwich Albion and Tottenham back to back at the end of August, then drew with Bournemouth before returning to winning ways against Millwall. The only blemish came most recently, a defeat away at Leeds United on 14 September, which will sting a little heading into this one but doesn't undo the broader trend of a team picking up points regularly.

Hull's recent record is more mixed. A penalty-shootout win over Stoke City and a straightforward victory at Coventry City gave them momentum, but since then they've drawn with Aston Villa, lost away to Sunderland, and drawn again at Chelsea. Three of their last five have ended without a win, and the underlying pattern suggests a side that's competitive but struggling to close matches out against tougher opposition, which is a relevant concern going into a trip to Newcastle.

Head-to-Head

The historical head-to-head between these two clubs is tighter than the current form lines would suggest. Across the last five meetings, Newcastle hold a narrow edge with a record of two wins, two draws and one defeat. Newcastle won both away and at home during encounters in 2015 and 2014, while Hull's solitary win in this sample came back in September 2013. There have also been two draws in that span, in 2016 and 2014, so this fixture has historically been closer than a straight form comparison might imply, even if Newcastle's overall record is the better of the two.

Team News

Newcastle United have a handful of players sidelined. William Osula is out with a foot injury, Dan Burn is nursing an ankle problem, Joelinton remains out with an unspecified issue, Sven Botman continues his recovery from knee surgery, and Tino Livramento is unavailable with a knee injury. That's a notable list, particularly in defence, and it will be a factor Newcastle's setup has to manage.

Hull City also have absentees to contend with. Charlie Hughes is out with an inguinal hernia, Ilyas Ansah is dealing with back problems, Eliot Matazo remains sidelined with a cruciate ligament tear, Darko Gyabi is out through a groin injury, and Joe Gelhardt is missing with an ankle injury. With five players unavailable, Hull's options look stretched heading into a difficult away fixture, and that squad disruption adds further weight to the view that Newcastle enter this one with the stronger hand.