Crystal Palace vs Middlesbrough Betting Tips & Preview

Middlesbrough to win

Our selection for this Carabao Cup third round tie at Selhurst Park is Middlesbrough to win outright, and it's a call built on where both clubs currently stand rather than any perceived gap between odds and reality. Boro arrive on the back of three wins from their last five, including a comfortable victory over West Brom and a routine dispatch of Doncaster Rovers, while Crystal Palace have been badly disrupted by injuries to key attacking players and have won only two of their last five matches. The model puts Middlesbrough as favourites here at 52.5%, and with Palace missing their first-choice striker and two other regulars, that reads as a fair reflection of where the two sides are right now rather than a leap of faith.

Recent Form

Crystal Palace's recent results have been a mixed bag against some stern opposition. They lost to Arsenal and were beaten by Everton and Manchester City in three of their last five outings, though they did find a win against Rayo Vallecano and, most recently, edged past Fulham away from home on 5 September. That win will offer some encouragement, but the overall picture is of a side that has struggled for consistency against both top-flight quality and more workmanlike opposition alike.

Middlesbrough, by contrast, look to be building some momentum. They lost their opening match in this stretch to Blackburn Rovers, but have since won three of their next four, beating Doncaster Rovers, West Brom and Queens Park Rangers, with only a draw against Burnley interrupting that run. That's a tidy sequence of form heading into this fixture, and it suggests a team with some rhythm and confidence about them.

Head-to-Head

The head-to-head record between these two sides is essentially even across the last five meetings, with Crystal Palace holding a 3-0-2 edge. Palace won in 2017, 2016 and 2013, while Middlesbrough have the more recent success, winning in 2018, and also took the points in the earliest meeting on this list back in 2012. There's no clear historical pattern favouring either side heavily, and given how long ago some of these meetings took place, the head-to-head record carries limited weight in assessing this particular match-up.

Team News

Crystal Palace's team news is where the real story lies. Ismaïla Sarr is out with a groin injury since 20 August, Jean-Philippe Mateta remains sidelined with a hamstring problem since 23 August, and Chadi Riad is unavailable following knee surgery since 22 August. Rob Holding is also listed as suspended, though that suspension dates back to September 2024. Taken together, that's a significant chunk of Palace's attacking and defensive options missing at once.

Middlesbrough's situation is far more settled. The only absentee listed is Darragh Lenihan, who has been out since ankle surgery back in November 2023 and is clearly a long-term situation rather than a fresh concern. With no other injuries or suspensions on record for Boro, they head into this one with a fuller squad to choose from than their hosts.