Saturday 10 October · IRE · Hurdle
5:00 Fairyhouse
Protection & Prosperity Financial Services Supporting Louth GAA Handicap Hurdle
2m · Going: Good · 16 runners · €6,000
Verdict — our pick: Jurality
Jurality is our selection here, and the case rests on a progressive profile that makes him more appealing than his raw figure of 100 suggests, even though he sits four pounds behind the joint top-rated pair. Improvement can outweigh a small deficit on paper in a competitive 16-runner field over two miles on good ground, and he looks the type to keep moving forward. The main dangers are Champagne Dawn and Liceo, both on 104, along with Zaryagle on 103, so this is a tight contest with little separating the leading group. Jurality gets the nod as the one with the most scope to improve past them.
Runners & best odds
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1. Certamen(0)Form: 56-0P7
J: Kieren Buckley · T: Edward Buckley · 5yo · 12st 0lb · OR 100 · trainer 0% (14d)
By Teofilo out of Bobailin (Vocalised) · Owner: Sarah Ling Sarah Buckley
Certamen was seventh last time out and pulled up two starts back, so he is winless in his last five and returns after 43 days off. He has run over today's trip and going and carries 168 lb off 100, while our rating of 103 ranks him fourth of 16.
2. Jurality(0)Form: 604-27
J: Donagh Meyler · T: Paul W Flynn · 5yo · 12st 0lb · OR 100 · trainer 18% (14d)
By Masar out of Notary (Lawman) · Owner: Roy Racing Syndicate
Fit after just 12 days off, Jurality has run over today's trip and on this going, and a second two starts back shows he can bounce back from a seventh last time out. Carrying 168 lb off an official mark of 100 is a reservation, but his overall profile earns the selection.
3. Liceo(0)Form: -93535
J: P J O'Hanlon · T: Dermot A McLoughlin · 6yo · 12st 0lb · OR 100 · trainer 0% (14d)
By Almanzor out of Totem (Mizzen Mast) · Owner: Martin Leonard Ohanlon
Liceo is a leading threat, having finished third two starts back and fifth last time out, and he has run over today's trip and going before, while our rating of 104 ranks him second of 16. The main risk is a 63-day absence, with 168 lb to carry and yet to win in his last five starts.
4. Champagne Dawn(0)Form: 00P-75
J: Phillip Enright · T: T J O'Mara · 9yo · 11st 12lb · OR 98 · trainer 0% (14d)
By Shantou out of Morning Calm (Montjeu) · Owner: Miss R Hickey
Fit after a nine-day turnaround and a fifth last time out, this gelding has run over today's trip and on the going, and our rating of 104 ranks him top of 16. The risk is a winless run in his last five starts, now carrying 166 lb.
5. Fairy Meadow(0)Form: F/038
J: Dylan O'Connor(7) · T: John Joseph Hanlon · 9yo · 11st 10lb · OR 96 · trainer 0% (14d)
By Power out of Kilcormac Dancer (Danehill Dancer) · Owner: J S Cullen
Fairy Meadow was eighth last time out after a third two starts back, and he is yet to win in his last four outings, though 22 days since that run and previous experience of today's going are mild positives. Carrying 164 lb off 96, he looks held, with our rating of 91 ranking him tenth of sixteen.
6. Undertheinfluence(0)Form: 8960
J: Carl Millar(5) · T: Noel C. Kelly · 5yo · 11st 8lb · OR 94 · trainer 0% (14d)
By Court Cave out of Henrietta Maria (Naheez) · Owner: Kyra Kelly
Unplaced last time out and yet to win in his last four, Undertheinfluence has run over today's trip and going before and is fresh enough after 21 days, but a sixth, a ninth and an eighth in that sequence, plus 162 lb off 94, leave him a midfield type, with our rating of 93 offering little more.
7. Wee Fallon(0)Form: 87-04
J: James Smith(3) · T: Ian Patrick Donoghue · 4yo · 11st 8lb · OR 95 · trainer 0% (14d)
By Kew Gardens out of Ohwhatalady (Invincible Spirit) · Owner: Peader Fallon
Wee Fallon is winless in his last four, finishing fourth last time out after an unplaced run, a seventh and an eighth before that, and he returns after 43 days. He has run on today's going and that fourth is a fair sign, but 162 lb off 95 is a big ask, and our 76 ranks him last of 16.
8. Hesasmoothoperator(0)Form: 42/06-
J: Danny Mullins · T: Anthony Mullins · 8yo · 11st 6lb · OR 92 · trainer 50% (14d)
By Califet out of Zihuatanejo Breeze (Old Vic) · Owner: Shawshank Syndicate
Sixth last time out and a second three starts back sit alongside a 274-day absence, so fitness is the question for this winless gelding, who has run over today's trip and on the going before. Our rating of 96 is a little above his official 92, but 160 lb is a hefty burden.
9. Pahlavi(0)Form: P56341
J: Danny Gilligan · T: John Joseph Hanlon · 9yo · 11st 12lb · OR 91 · trainer 0% (14d)
By Palavicini out of Persian Memories (Indian Ridge) · Owner: Shark Hanlon Racing Club
Won last time out and back just one day later, Pahlavi has a fourth and a third behind him in recent starts, and he has run over today's trip and going before. Carrying 166 lb off an official mark of 91 is a stiff task, and our rating ranks him only sixth of 16.
10. Scary Askari(0)Form: 860-30
J: Simon Torrens · T: Noel C. Kelly · 6yo · 11st 5lb · OR 91 · trainer 0% (14d)
By Buck's Boum out of Princesse Pauline (Mansonnien) · Owner: Barry Begley Jnr
Without a win in his last five, Scary Askari did sign off with a third two starts back before going unplaced last time, 21 days ago, and has run over today's trip and going. Carrying 159 lb off an official mark of 91 is a hurdle, though our rating of 97 puts him seventh of 16.
11. Ancient Myth(0)Form: 00007P
J: Sam Ewing · T: N F Glynn · 5yo · 11st 3lb · OR 89 · trainer 0% (14d)
By Camelot out of Queen Rabab (Fastnet Rock) · Owner: N F Glynn
Ancient Myth is hard to fancy, pulled up last time out and yet to win in his last six starts, with a seventh two starts back his best finish in that run. He has run on today's going and is back quickly after 12 days, but 157 lb is a big ask, and our rating of 86 puts him 13th of 16.
12. Granlahan(0)Form: 624222
J: Darragh O'Keeffe · T: Adrian McGuinness · 4yo · 10st 13lb · OR 86 · trainer 13% (14d)
By Equiano out of Fiuntach (Intense Focus) · Owner: Hem Syndicate
Granlahan arrives quick off the mark six days after a second last time out, and he has been runner-up in three of his last four starts, yet he remains winless in his last six. He has run over today's trip and going, and our rating of 90 sits above his official 86, though carrying 153 lb and ranking only 11th of 16 keeps him in the midfield.
13. Zaryagle(0)Form: 596P-0
J: Mr R Sugrue(7) · T: P J Rothwell · 5yo · 10st 12lb · OR 84 · trainer 0% (14d)
By Free Eagle out of Zariyama (Pivotal) · Owner: T Flaherty
Zaryagle has run over today's trip and on this going, and our rating of 103 ranks him third of 16, well clear of his official 84 off 152 lb, so he looks a leading threat. The risk is a poor recent run: unplaced last time, pulled up before that, after 64 days off and with a yard 0 from 32.
14. Crypto Crash(0)Form: -69F1R
J: Daniel King · T: David Kenneth Budds · 5yo · 10st 11lb · OR 83 · trainer 0% (14d)
By Postponed out of Blushes (Siyouni) · Owner: Kevin Galvin
Crypto Crash refused last time out and fell three starts back, so reliability is a concern, though he did win two starts back and has run over today's trip and going. Ranked 14 of 16 on our figures, he looks hard to fancy carrying 151 lb.
15. Chesterbaylad(0)Form: 027418
J: Josh Williamson(3) · T: Ms Helen P Markham · 5yo · 10st 8lb · OR 80 · trainer 0% (14d)
By Ribchester out of Sea The Sun (Sea The Stars) · Owner: Brian A Heaslip
Chesterbaylad was eighth last time out 45 days ago, and a winner two starts back is the main plus, with experience of today's trip and going. Carrying 148 lb off an official rating of 80, he looks hard to fancy, ranked 15th of 16 on our figures.
16. Vairue(0)Form: 09/7F9
J: Aidan Kelly · T: Ms Helen P Markham · 10yo · 10st 8lb · OR 80 · trainer 0% (14d)
By Pushkin out of Little Bramble (Pierre) · Owner: Mrs Valentine Cross
Vairue is hard to fancy, winless in his last five with a ninth last time out, a fall two starts back and a seventh three starts back, and he returns after 55 days off. He has run over today's trip and going and our rating puts him 12th of 16, with 148 lb to carry off 80.
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