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Saturday 19 September · GB · Flat · Class 1

2:12 Newbury

Dubai Duty Free Mill Reef Stakes (Group 2) (In Honour Of Ian Balding)

6f · Going: Good To Firm · 8 runners · £99,242

Verdict — our pick: Arapaho Gold

Arapaho Gold heads the ratings in this competitive Class 1 six-furlong contest at Newbury and, on figures alone, holds a narrow edge over the closest pursuers, but the confidence here is modest given the quality ranged against him. Jolivette, just a couple of pounds behind, represents the most immediate threat and cannot be readily dismissed, while Cut A Dash and Adaay of Scarlett are also firmly in the picture and capable of reversing the slim rating advantage on the day. The selection's edge is real but slender, and this looks a race that could be decided by small margins. On balance, Arapaho Gold is our selection.

Runners & best odds

Updated 02:13

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1. Arapaho Gold(2)Form: 1111

J: Connor Beasley · T: Michael Dods · 2yo · 9st 6lb · OR 110 · trainer 11% (14d)

By Bayside Boy out of Call Of The Jungle (Bungle Inthejungle) · Owner: Doug Graham And Carole Dods

Arapaho Gold arrives on the back of four consecutive wins and, with experience over today's trip and a 29-day break since his last run, he looks the one to beat from stall two carrying 132 lb.

2. Adaay of Scarlett(6)Form: 222257

J: Rossa Ryan · T: Hugo Palmer · 2yo · 9st 3lb · OR 105 · trainer 5% (14d)

By Mehmas out of Adaay To Remember (Adaay) · Owner: Svg Exact Lifestyle Ltd Owen

22/1Bet365

Adaay of Scarlett has rattled up four runner-up finishes in recent starts and has run over today's trip and going, making him a live threat from stall six off 129 lb; the main risk is his seventh last time out suggesting he may be coming off the boil.

3. Cut A Dash(7)Form: 1494

J: Jamie Spencer · T: Richard Hannon · 2yo · 9st 3lb · OR 102 · trainer 4% (14d)

By Starspangledbanner out of Promising (Invincible Spirit) · Owner: Denford Stud

33/1Bet365

Cut A Dash won one start back in recent form and has experience of today's trip and conditions, with his 129 lb burden from stall seven the factor to watch as he bids to recapture that winning thread.

4. Matteo(1)Form: 117

J: Shane Gray · T: Kevin Ryan · 2yo · 9st 3lb · OR 91 · trainer 7% (14d)

By Coulsty out of Debutante's Ball (Society Rock) · Owner: Mrs J Ryan

66/1Bet365

Back-to-back wins two and three starts back give Matteo strong recent claims, though he was well beaten last time out; has run over today's trip and going, and 129 lb from stall one is the key unknown.

5. Mr Macartney(3)Form: 417676

J: Ray Dawson · T: Oli Rix · 2yo · 9st 3lb · OR 95 · trainer 25% (14d)

By Ubettabelieveit out of Blue Moonrise (Gutaifan) · Owner: Barham Masterton Sweeting Severn Eddis

100/1Bet365

A winner five starts back, Mr Macartney has since posted a string of sixth and seventh-place finishes, and ranked seventh of eight on our figures he is hard to fancy here; he has run over today's trip and going, and stall three gives him a neutral pitch.

6. Nabati(5)Form: 1213

J: William Buick · T: Charlie Appleby · 2yo · 9st 3lb · OR 104 · trainer 50% (14d)

By Night Of Thunder out of Pronouncement (Declaration Of War) · Owner: Godolphin

Nabati arrives on the back of a fine run of form — third last time out, though a winner two starts back, and he carries 129 lb from stall 5; his experience over today's trip and going helps, but our rating of 96 suggests he may be held on merit against the top-ranked rivals.

7. Revels(4)Form: 1910

J: Callum Rodriguez · T: K. R. Burke · 2yo · 9st 3lb · OR 90 · trainer 18% (14d)

By Lope De Vega out of Snooze N You Lose (Ribchester) · Owner: Ms L Mars

25/1Bet365

Ranked last of eight on our figures and with an unplaced run latest, Revels is hard to fancy despite two wins in his last four starts; he has run over today's distance and going before, and he returns after 30 days.

8. Jolivette(8)Form: 1953

J: Colin Keane · T: Andrew Balding · 2yo · 9st 0lb · OR 103 · trainer 21% (14d)

By Wootton Bassett out of Jovial (Dubawi) · Owner: Juddmonte

Jolivette shaped well with a third last time out, and a winner four starts back, she has winning form in the book; experience over today's trip and going suits, though carrying 126 lb from stall eight is the factor to watch.

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