Newcastle vs Bournemouth Betting Tips & Preview

Newcastle United to win

Newcastle United go into this Premier League fixture as our pick to beat AFC Bournemouth at St James' Park, and it's a call built more on the general shape of both teams' recent games than any standout run of form from either camp. The model gives Newcastle a 39.8% chance of victory, which isn't overwhelming, but with the draw and an away win splitting the remaining probability, a home win stands out as the single most likely of the three outcomes. Newcastle have shown they can beat sides lower in the pecking order when they turn up, and Bournemouth's away form in recent memory offers no great reassurance that they'll travel to the North East and come away with anything.

Recent Form

Newcastle's last five completed fixtures paint a picture of a side that's solid without being spectacular. They drew away at Nottingham Forest, beat West Ham at home, then lost away to Fulham before two more recent results — a draw with Liverpool at home and a win over West Bromwich Albion, also at St James' Park. That's two wins, two draws and a defeat, and notably both of Newcastle's victories in this sample have come on home soil, which bodes well given the venue for this one.

Bournemouth's form reads a little more positively on paper but with a sting in the tail. They won at home against Crystal Palace and away at Fulham, then drew with Manchester City at home and with Nottingham Forest away, before their most recent outing saw them beaten by Manchester City on the road. Three unbeaten results followed by a loss to a heavyweight side suggests a team capable of competing with anyone on their day, but the away defeat to City is the most recent data point we have, and it came against a side of considerably higher standing than Newcastle away from home tends to reward.

Head-to-Head

The head-to-head record actually favours Bournemouth over the last five meetings, with the Cherries winning two, Newcastle winning one — via penalties — and two games ending level. Bournemouth's wins came in April 2026 and back in January 2025, both by full-time results, while Newcastle's solitary success needed a penalty shootout to be settled back in January 2026. Two of the five meetings ended in draws, in September 2025 and August 2024, both games hosted by Bournemouth. It's a fixture that has generally been tight and hasn't followed a clear home-advantage pattern, which is worth bearing in mind even as we back the home side here.

Team News

Newcastle United have two players sidelined for this one. Sven Botman remains out following knee surgery, a lay-off that stretches back to March 2025, while Tino Livramento is unavailable with a knee injury picked up more recently, in June 2026. Both are notable absences from the defensive setup, though the club have had time to adjust selection around them given how long Botman in particular has been missing.

AFC Bournemouth have three players unavailable based on the information provided. Will Dennis is out with an ankle injury dating back to the start of 2026, Matai Akinmboni has been sidelined since November 2025 with a muscle injury, and Junior Kroupi is out with a foot injury suffered in late July 2026. That's a reasonable list of absentees for the visitors heading into a competitive away fixture, and it adds a little more weight to the case for backing the home side here.