Borussia Dortmund vs Villarreal Betting Tips & Preview

Borussia Dortmund to win

Dortmund are the pick here, and the case for them is built on momentum as much as anything else. They've won each of their last three matches, they've already got the better of Villarreal in their only previous meeting, and they arrive at this fixture in far better shape than a Villarreal side who haven't tasted victory since May. Backed at odds of 1.80, Dortmund are rated by our model as roughly 55% likely to win this one, and while the bookmaker price implies a similar chance, that's simply confirmation rather than the reason for the tip. The straightforward logic stands: a team on a winning run against opponents who are misfiring should be favoured, and that's exactly the shape of this contest.

Recent Form

Dortmund's recent record reads about as well as it could. They beat Werder Bremen away, saw off Hamburger SV at home, and then followed that up with another win on the road against TSG Hoffenheim just days before this fixture. Three wins from three, with no hint of a slip, gives them a settled look heading into this match.

Villarreal's form tells a very different story. Their sequence of five matches contains just one win, against Atlético de Madrid back in May, since which they've drawn with Racing Santander, drawn again with Atlético, then lost back-to-back matches to Deportivo Alavés and Deportivo A Coruña. That's one win in five, with the two most recent results both defeats, and it paints a picture of a team short on confidence at exactly the wrong time.

Head-to-Head

The two sides have only met once on record, back on 25 November 2025, and Dortmund came out on top on that occasion. It's a small sample, admittedly just a single match, but it does mean the head-to-head history, limited as it is, points in Dortmund's favour rather than offering any encouragement to Villarreal.

Team News

Dortmund's absentee list is a lengthy one. Justin Lerma, Enzo dos Santos, Giannis Konstantelias, Emre Can and Nico Schlotterbeck are all out through various injuries, ranging from muscle problems to cruciate ligament damage, while Ramy Bensebaini and Samuele Inácio are further options unavailable through suspension. That's a significant number of players missing, and it will test Dortmund's squad depth even with results going their way.

Villarreal's situation is far more settled by comparison. Sergi Cardona is out with a muscle injury, and Daniel Thioune remains suspended, but beyond those two names there's nothing else listed. It's a much shorter list of concerns for Villarreal, though it hasn't translated into results on the pitch of late, and the size of Dortmund's absentee list is worth bearing in mind given how well they've performed regardless.