AZ Alkmaar vs Hapoel Be'er Sheva Betting Tips & Preview

AZ Alkmaar to win

AZ Alkmaar are the pick to win this Europa League League Stage fixture against Hapoel Be'er Sheva, and it comes down to a blend of home advantage and the general shape of both sides' recent schedules. The Dutch side have had the tougher run of opposition domestically of late, including defeats to Sunderland and Feyenoord, but they've also shown they can get results against sides they're expected to beat, winning two of their last five. Hapoel's form has been built largely against lower-tier continental opposition, and while their results there have been positive, it's hard to read too much into wins over Sabah and Crvena Zvezda when it comes to judging how they'll cope here. Our model puts AZ's win probability at 54.3%, which isn't overwhelming but is enough to make them the most likely outcome on the balance of the evidence available. The 1.33 price on offer reflects the market's own confidence in AZ rather than being the reason for the selection — this is a pick based on who's more likely to win, not on finding a gap between model and bookmaker.

Recent Form

AZ Alkmaar's last five fixtures paint a mixed picture: a win away at SC Heerenveen, a home draw with Willem II, a loss at Sunderland, a home win over Telstar, and most recently a defeat away to Feyenoord. That's two wins, one draw and two losses, and it suggests a team capable of beating sides below the very top bracket but still finding life difficult against stronger domestic rivals. Hapoel Be'er Sheva, by contrast, arrive having won three of their last five — both meetings with Crvena Zvezda and a home win over Sabah — before a loss to Sabah in extra time and a draw with Dinamo Zagreb. On paper Hapoel's recent record looks the stronger of the two, but it's worth remembering the context: those wins came in different competition settings and against sides whose level may not translate directly to how they'll fare away from home in this tie.

Head-to-Head

There is no head-to-head history between AZ Alkmaar and Hapoel Be'er Sheva in our data. This appears to be either the first ever meeting between the two clubs or a fixture whose history simply predates what we have on record, so there's nothing from past meetings to lean on here — the form lines and team news have to do the heavy lifting in assessing this one.

Team News

AZ Alkmaar have four players sidelined: Kees Smit and Jizz Hornkamp are both out with unspecified injuries picked up in recent weeks, Hobie Verhulst is unavailable through an eligibility issue, and Stije Resink remains a long-term absentee with a cruciate ligament injury dating back to March. That's a reasonably significant list, though none of it appears tied to one specific position being gutted. Hapoel Be'er Sheva also have four absentees: Yoan Stoyanov is out through an eligibility issue, Dan Biton remains unavailable with a long-standing heart condition since April, and both Itay Rotman and Lucas Ventura are missing with knee and hamstring injuries respectively, both dating to early September. Both squads are dealing with a similar volume of unavailability, so neither side holds a clear edge purely on the basis of who's missing.