Benfica vs Celtic Betting Tips & Preview

Benfica to win

Benfica look the stronger side heading into this Europa League League Stage meeting with Celtic, and that's the view we're backing here. The Portuguese side have won four of their last five outings, including a notable away victory over AC Milan, and they come into this one fresh off a home win against Vitória Guimarães just days before kick-off. Celtic, by contrast, have lost two of their last three completed fixtures, including a home defeat to Ferencvárosi in continental competition and a loss to Rangers domestically. On balance of recent evidence and the pattern of head-to-head results between these two clubs, Benfica winning this fixture is the outcome we rate as most likely, with our model putting that at a 58.4% probability. The 1.25 price on offer reflects how strongly the market agrees, but the pick here is built on current form and history rather than any perceived gap between model and market.

Recent Form

Benfica arrive in excellent touch. Of their last five completed matches, they've won four, beating Moreirense away, Gil Vicente at home, and AC Milan away, before a home win over Vitória Guimarães on 11 October. The one blemish was a defeat to Porto on 20 September, away from home, but otherwise the pattern is of a team winning consistently and comfortably across different opponents and venues.

Celtic's form reads more unevenly. They opened their last five with wins over St. Mirren and St. Johnstone, both away from home, but then suffered back-to-back defeats — at home to Ferencvárosi and again at home to Rangers — before bouncing back with a win at Motherwell on 11 October. Two losses in their last five, both at Celtic Park, will be a point of concern heading into a trip to Portugal.

Head-to-Head

History between these two clubs favours Benfica. Across the last five meetings, Benfica have won three, Celtic have won one, and there's been one draw. Benfica's wins came in 2012, 2007, and 2006, with Celtic's solitary victory arriving in November 2007 and a draw recorded in September 2012. While these meetings stretch back some years and shouldn't be overweighted against current form, the overall head-to-head record does lean clearly toward the hosts.

Team News

Benfica are without Jakub Kamiński, sidelined with a muscle injury since 26 September, and Gonçalo Oliveira, out since May with an unspecified injury. Neither has been involved in the squad's recent run of results, so their continued absence shouldn't represent a major disruption to the side that's carried Benfica's strong form.

Celtic are missing Alistair Johnston, out since August with a leg injury, and goalkeeper Kasper Schmeichel, sidelined since February with a shoulder issue. Schmeichel's long-term absence in particular means Celtic have had to manage without their senior goalkeeper for an extended period, which is worth bearing in mind against a Benfica side in form.