Atlético de Madrid vs FC Bayern München Betting Tips & Preview

FC Bayern München to win

Bayern München head to the Wanda Metropolitano as our pick to win this Champions League league stage clash, and the case rests largely on history and a sense that Atlético's recent form, while solid, hasn't been tested against opposition of this calibre. Bayern have dominated this fixture over the years, and though their own results of late have been scrappier than Atlético's, the underlying quality in their squad still points towards them edging a tight contest. Our model puts their chances at 43.4%, making them the most likely outcome in a match that could easily go any of three ways, and that's the basis for backing them rather than any perceived gap against the 2.30 on offer.

Recent Form

Atlético de Madrid arrive on the back of a solid run, winning four of their last five, with the only blemish a draw away at VfB Stuttgart. Wins over Manchester United, Espanyol, Deportivo A Coruña and Levante suggest Diego Simeone's side are ticking over nicely, even if the calibre of some of those opponents means the form line should be read with a touch of caution. There's a steadiness to their results that will give their supporters confidence heading into this one.

Bayern München's last five tells a different story. Two wins, against RB Leipzig and SC Freiburg, are balanced out by three draws, including a goalless-feeling stalemate with Viking and more recent draws against Arsenal and Borussia Dortmund. That's a side that has found goals and results harder to come by of late, dropping points in matches many would have expected them to win. It's not alarming form, but it is form that suggests Atlético won't simply be swept aside.

Head-to-Head

History favours Bayern heavily in this matchup. Of the last five meetings between the two sides, Bayern have won four, with the solitary blip coming via an Atlético win back in September 2016. The most recent encounters, in 2020, produced a draw and a Bayern win, continuing a pattern that has rarely favoured the Spanish side over the years. Atlético have found Bayern a persistently difficult opponent, and that psychological edge, built up over a decade of fixtures, is worth factoring into this preview even if past meetings don't guarantee anything in the present.

Team News

Atlético de Madrid will be without Koke, sidelined with a muscle injury since mid-October, and Johnny Cardoso, who has been out with a hamstring problem since October 22. Both absences are notable in terms of midfield depth, though Simeone's side have shown in recent weeks they can still grind out results without them.

Bayern München's injury list is considerably longer. Ismael Saibari and Serge Gnabry have both been ruled out since October 31 with a syndesmotic ligament tear and a hamstring injury respectively, while Luis Díaz has been missing since October 22 with a torn muscle bundle. Manuel Neuer remains out with a foot injury, Bara Sapoko Ndiaye is recovering from an appendectomy, and Joshua Kimmich is absent on special leave. That's a significant number of first-team names unavailable, and it's a factor that could easily explain some of Bayern's recent dip in results — and one that adds a layer of uncertainty to how comfortably they might be able to assert themselves in Madrid.