Newcastle vs Everton Betting Tips & Preview

Newcastle United to win

Newcastle United to win is the call for this Premier League fixture at St James' Park, and it comes down to home advantage against an Everton side whose recent away form offers little reassurance. Our model gives the Magpies a 36.5% chance of victory, the highest single-outcome probability of the three results on offer, with the draw and an Everton win splitting the remainder. Backing it isn't about chasing a gap between that figure and the 2.25 on offer — it's simply that, of the three plausible outcomes, a home win looks the most likely to land given how both sides have been performing.

Recent Form

Newcastle's last five have been a mixed bag at best. They were beaten away at Leeds United in mid-September before responding with a home win over Hull City, but since then the wheels have come off a little — defeats to Coventry City away and Aston Villa at home either side of a trip to Crystal Palace whose result isn't on record here. It's a stretch that shows real inconsistency, with one win from the four completed matches we can account for, but St James' Park has at least still produced a victory in that spell.

Everton's form reads similarly uneven. Back-to-back home wins over Wolverhampton Wanderers and Ipswich Town in September suggested momentum, but a draw at Hull City was followed by back-to-back defeats, losing at home to Chelsea and then away to Arsenal. That's three winless outings in their last three, two of them defeats against sides pushing near the top end of the table, and it leaves Everton heading into this one with their recent home strength not really translating on the road.

Head-to-Head

The head-to-head picture over the last five meetings favours Everton slightly, with the Toffees winning twice, Newcastle once, and two games ending level. Everton were victorious in the most recent meeting back in February 2026, and again in May 2025, while Newcastle's solitary win in this sample came away at Goodison Park in November 2025. The two draws, in October 2024 and April 2024, suggest these fixtures aren't always one-sided affairs, and recent history shows Everton have had the edge more often than not when the sides have met.

Team News

Newcastle United have a handful of absentees to contend with. Joelinton remains out with an unspecified injury dating back to mid-August, while Dan Burn continues to recover from an ankle problem picked up around the same time. William Osula is also sidelined with a foot injury, and Tino Livramento has been out since June with a knee issue. That's a notable list, touching midfield, defence and attack, and it will test Newcastle's squad depth over the course of this fixture.

Everton, by contrast, have no players currently listed as sidelined in our data, giving Sean Dyche a fully available squad to choose from. That clean bill of health is a point in Everton's favour on paper, even if their recent results on the pitch haven't reflected it.