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Saturday 10 October · GB · Flat · Class 1

2:25 Newmarket

Emirates Autumn Stakes (Group 3)

1m · Going: Good · 7 runners · £42,532

Verdict — our pick: Sergei Diaghilev

Sergei Diaghilev heads our ratings on 108, a clear seven pounds ahead of Mia Fantasia on 101, and that margin gives him the strongest claim in a seven-runner Class 1 over a mile on good ground at Newmarket. The most likely threats are Mia Fantasia, then Clash of Hearts on 98 and Notable Dream on 97, who are bunched together and will need to improve to bridge the gap. Rock Montreal, Al Jabbar and Sole Ambition look to have more to find on our figures. Sergei Diaghilev is the selection, with the clear edge on ratings and only the closeness of the chasing trio keeping confidence at a measured level.

Runners & best odds

Updated 00:19

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1. Al Jabbar(3)Form: 21

J: Billy Loughnane · T: Charlie Appleby · 2yo · 9st 3lb · trainer 30% (14d)

By Sea The Stars out of River Melody (Dansili) · Owner: Godolphin

Al Jabbar arrives in good heart, a winner last time out and a second two starts back, and he has run over today's trip and going, but our figures rank him sixth of seven. Carrying 129 lb from draw 3 after 28 days off, he looks short of pace with a speed figure of 71.

2. Clash of Hearts(6)Form: 231856

J: M. P. Sheehy · T: Adrian Keatley · 2yo · 9st 3lb · OR 93 · trainer 19% (14d)

By Mehmas out of Symbol Of Love (Shamardal) · Owner: Andy Finneran And Partners

Clash of Hearts has run over today's trip and going before, and a winner four starts back, with a second and a third before that, shows he has the ability, while our rating of 98 puts him third of seven. The risk is a sixth last time out and a 40-day break, carrying 129 lb from stall six.

3. Mia Fantasia(5)Form: 13615

J: James Doyle · T: Hugo Palmer · 2yo · 9st 3lb · OR 95 · trainer 8% (14d)

By Make Believe out of Ombra Mia (Olympic Glory) · Owner: South By Northwest Partnership

Two wins in his last five starts, including a victory two starts back, make Mia Fantasia a leading threat, and he has run over today's trip. The main risk is a fifth last time out and a 42-day break, while he carries 129 lb from draw 5.

4. Notable Dream(4)Form: 3162

J: Silvestre De Sousa · T: Marco Botti · 2yo · 9st 3lb · OR 99 · trainer 10% (14d)

By Bayside Boy out of La Reveuse (Galileo) · Owner: Scuderia Sagam Srls

Notable Dream is a leading danger, having finished second last time out just 16 days ago, and he has run over today's trip and going before. The risk is a sixth two starts back, and he carries 129 lb off an official mark of 99 from draw 4.

5. Rock Montreal(2)Form: 12

J: William Buick · T: Roger Varian · 2yo · 9st 3lb · OR 106 · trainer 15% (14d)

By Blue Point out of Boston Rocker (Acclamation) · Owner: Godolphin

Rock Montreal arrives in good heart, a second last time out and a winner two starts back, and he has run over today's trip and going before after 29 days off. Our rating of 89 ranks him fifth of seven, though, and 129 lb from stall two is a hefty burden against an official 106.

6. Sergei Diaghilev(7)Form: 1912

J: Ryan Moore · T: Aidan O'Brien · 2yo · 9st 3lb · trainer 15% (14d)

By Wootton Bassett out of Embellish (Galileo) · Owner: Westerberg Mrs Magnier M Tabor D Smith

Sergei Diaghilev is the one to beat, a second last time out after a win two starts back, and two wins in his last four starts, with 28 days since that run. He has run over today's trip and on this going before, though a ninth three starts back is the one blemish, and our rating of 108 ranks him top of seven.

7. Sole Ambition(1)Form: 331

J: Kieran Shoemark · T: Ed Walker · 2yo · 9st 3lb · OR 90 · trainer 15% (14d)

By No Nay Never out of Scarlet Bear (Kodi Bear) · Owner: Tbt Racing

Sole Ambition won last time out and was third on each of the two runs before, so the form is solid and he's fresh enough after 15 days, having run over today's trip and going. But carrying 129 lb off an official 90, with our rating of 83 ranking him last of seven, he's hard to fancy from stall one.

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