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Saturday 10 October · GB · Flat · Class 1

1:50 Newmarket

Native Trail Zetland Stakes (Group 3)

1m2f · Going: Good · 6 runners · £42,532

Verdict — our pick: Sword Salute

Sword Salute heads our ratings on 103, a clear seven pounds ahead of Drumbeat on 96, and that margin over a six-runner Newmarket field over ten furlongs on good ground makes him the logical choice. Drumbeat is the chief danger and the one most likely to take advantage if our pick falls short, while Apulia Bay on 91 and Wykehurst Park on 87 also need respecting in a race that looks compact rather than deep. Confidence is low, as the gap is a solid rather than overwhelming one, but Sword Salute still has the strongest case on our figures. Sword Salute is the selection.

Runners & best odds

Updated 00:10

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1. Apulia Bay(4)Form: 3213

J: James Doyle · T: Simon & Ed Crisford · 2yo · 9st 4lb · OR 92 · trainer 19% (14d)

By Too Darn Hot out of Stella D'italia (Sea The Stars) · Owner: Rabbah Racing

Apulia Bay arrives in cracking nick, third last time out, a winner two starts back, and a second three starts back, with 22 days since his last run and experience of today's going. The one concern is the 130 lb he carries from stall four, with our rating of 91 ranking him third of six.

2. Bowdens(3)Form: 1

J: Rowan Scott · T: Charlie Johnston · 2yo · 9st 4lb · trainer 12% (14d)

By Australia out of Silver Meadow (Teofilo) · Owner: Kingsley Park 45

Bowdens won last time out and returns after 20 days, which is a fair positive, but that is his only recent run to go on and he is hard to fancy at 130 lb. Ranked fifth of six on our rating of 83, he looks outclassed from stall three.

3. Drumbeat(6)Form: 6313

J: Ryan Moore · T: Aidan O'Brien · 2yo · 9st 4lb · trainer 15% (14d)

By Wootton Bassett out of Cloth Of Cloud (Captain Al) · Owner: Westerberg Mrs Magnier M Tabor D Smith

Drumbeat comes in fit after 14 days, third last time out and a winner two starts back, and he has run on today's going before. Our rating of 96 ranks him second of six, but 130 lb from draw 6 is a hefty burden and the main risk.

4. Netherstream(2)Form: 351

J: Billy Loughnane · T: Jane Chapple-Hyam · 2yo · 9st 4lb · OR 83 · trainer 0% (14d)

By Pinatubo out of Mozzarella (Power) · Owner: Mr P. W. Harris

11/1Unibet

Netherstream won last time out, a fifth two starts back and a third three starts back, and he is fresh enough after 16 days with experience on today's going. Still, carrying 130 lb off an official mark of 83, our figures rank him last of six, and a speed rating of 65 makes him hard to fancy.

5. Sword Salute(1)Form: 310172

J: William Buick · T: Charlie Johnston · 2yo · 9st 4lb · OR 94 · trainer 12% (14d)

By Masar out of Victory Wave (Distorted Humor) · Owner: Sheikh Hamdan Bin Mohammed Al Maktoum

Sword Salute is the one to beat: he was second last time out just 13 days ago, and he has won twice in his last six starts, a winner three starts back and again five back. He has run on today's going before, and our rating of 103 tops the six-runner field, though a seventh two starts back is a small blemish.

6. Wykehurst Park(5)Form: 31

J: Rob Hornby · T: Andrew Balding · 2yo · 9st 4lb · OR 81 · trainer 10% (14d)

By Stradivarius out of Ten Thousand Stars (Toronado) · Owner: Mr Michael Blencowe & Partner

15/2Bet365

Wykehurst Park arrives a last-time-out winner, with a third two starts back, and has run over today's trip and going before, while 23 days since his last run suggests he's fresh. Our rating of 87 sits above his official 81, but carrying 130 lb from stall five is the main risk.

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