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Saturday 10 October · GB · Flat · Class 4

2:40 York

Sky Bet Peter Nolan Handicap Stakes

1m · Going: Soft · 20 runners · £13,085

Verdict — our pick: Sailthisshipalone

Sailthisshipalone looks the call in this 20-runner Class 4 over a mile on soft ground at York, where a progressive profile gives him the edge over the top-rated runner. He is only two pounds behind Freddie Steady Go on our figures, so the gap is narrow, and his progressive profile can tip it his way. Freddie Steady Go is the chief danger as the highest-rated runner, with Frankies Dream and Canvas also in the mix, and a big field always carries some risk of trouble in running. Sailthisshipalone is the selection.

Runners & best odds

Updated 00:19

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1. Hale End(18)Form: 071427

J: Lewis Edmunds · T: Michael Dods · 6yo · 9st 11lb · OR 80 · trainer 0% (14d)

By Mehmas out of Would It Matter (Morpheus) · Owner: Game On Racing

Hale End showed his best with a second two starts back and a win four runs ago, and he has run over today's trip and going, but a seventh last time out and a stable 0/27 in the last 14 days temper enthusiasm. Our rating of 84 sits above his official 80, though he must carry 137 lb from stall 18.

2. Jez Bomb(14)Form: 121756

J: Shane Gray · T: Sam England · 5yo · 9st 11lb · OR 80 · trainer 15% (14d)

By Hunter's Light out of Cherina Dynamite (Kodiac) · Owner: A J Birch

22/1Bet365

Jez Bomb has finished sixth, fifth and seventh in his last three runs, a slide since winning four starts back, which makes him hard to fancy off 137 lb. He has run over today's trip and is fresh enough after 16 days, but our rating of 77 ranks him 18th of 20.

3. Canvas(19)Form: 096221

J: Kieran O'Neill · T: Scott Dixon · 4yo · 9st 11lb · OR 75 · trainer 4% (14d)

By Advertise out of Image (Sepoy) · Owner: David Dixon, PJ Dixon & SDRacing

Canvas won last time out and was second in each of the two runs before that, returning quickly after just five days and having run over today's trip and going. The main risk is a stable cold at 1/28 in the last 14 days, though our rating of 85 against an official 75 backs his case from draw 19.

4. Frankies Dream(13)Form: 378842

J: Oisin Orr · T: Jennie Candlish · 4yo · 9st 10lb · OR 79 · trainer 15% (14d)

By Belardo out of Opal Heart (Invincible Spirit) · Owner: G White

10/1Bet365

Frankies Dream arrives in good heart after a second last time out, just 15 days ago, and he has run over today's trip and on this going before. Our rating of 86 ranks him third of 20, but he is yet to win in his last six starts and carries 136 lb from draw 13.

5. Financer(16)Form: 147218

J: Jake Dickson(5) · T: Tim Easterby · 5yo · 9st 10lb · OR 79 · trainer 14% (14d)

By Cracksman out of Isa (Approve) · Owner: S Bulmer P Hebdon R Taylor

16/1Bet365

Financer won two starts back and took another success six starts back, but he was eighth last time out, 23 days ago, and carries 136 lb from stall 16. He has run over today's trip and going before, and our rating of 81 ranks him tenth of twenty.

6. Nyman(9)Form: 439151

J: Joanna Mason · T: Roger Fell · 4yo · 9st 9lb · OR 78 · trainer 9% (14d)

By Earthlight out of Split Trois (Dubawi) · Owner: R Fell F Garland

10/1Bet365

Nyman arrives in fine heart, a winner last time out just seven days ago and a winner three starts back too, and he has run over today's trip before. Carrying 135 lb from stall nine, he sits only 11th of 20 on our rating of 81, which keeps him a midfield proposition.

7. Capital Guarantee(6)Form: 616630

J: Daniel Tudhope · T: David O'Meara · 6yo · 9st 8lb · OR 77 · trainer 10% (14d)

By Lope De Vega out of Promised Money (Dark Angel) · Owner: Eagle Racing

25/1Bet365

Capital Guarantee was unplaced last time out, though he was third two starts back and a winner five starts back, and he has run over today's trip and going before. Fresh enough after 23 days off, he carries 134 lb from stall six, and our rating of 80 ranks him only 14th of 20.

8. Grey Soul(8)Form: 1-4116

J: Jason Watson · T: Dan Horsford · 4yo · 9st 8lb · OR 77 · trainer 33% (14d)

By Dark Angel out of Miss Bar Beach (Choisir) · Owner: Rhm Horses Ltd

20/1Bet365

Beaten into sixth last time out after a winner two starts back and another three starts back, he has plenty of recent wins, but 59 days off and 134 lb are hard to ignore. He has run over today's trip and going, yet our rating ranks him 17th of 20.

9. Dwindling Funds(4)Form: 219640

J: Rhys Elliott(5) · T: Jim Goldie · 5yo · 9st 8lb · OR 77 · trainer 8% (14d)

By Intrinsic out of Kashtan (Sakhee's Secret) · Owner: D P Van Der Hoeven D G Pryde

Unplaced last time out and just a fourth two starts back, though he won five starts back and was second six starts back, so the ability is there. Fit after 14 days, he has run over today's trip and going, but 134 lb from stall four and our 80 rating, 13th of 20, make him a midfield type.

10. Sailthisshipalone(15)Form: 439331

J: Jason Hart · T: Ivan Furtado · 5yo · 9st 8lb · OR 77 · trainer 17% (14d)

By Havana Gold out of Liberisque (Equiano) · Owner: Ontoawinner 8

12/1Bet365

Sailthisshipalone is our pick on profile: he won last time out, was third two starts back, and has run over today's trip and on this going before. Fresh enough after 23 days, though 134 lb is a notable burden from draw 15.

11. Mr King(11)Form: 671853

J: David Nolan · T: Geoffrey Harker · 6yo · 9st 8lb · OR 77 · trainer 0% (14d)

By Kingman out of Desert Snow (Teofilo) · Owner: C H Mcghie

25/1Bet365

Mr King was third last time out, and he won four starts back, though a fifth two starts back and an eighth three starts back show the inconsistency. He's fit after 18 days, has run over this trip and on this going, and carries 134 lb from stall 11, with our rating of 85 ranking him sixth of 20.

12. Freddie Steady Go(17)Form: 771884

J: Harry Russell · T: Susan Corbett · 5yo · 9st 8lb · OR 77 · trainer 0% (14d)

By Frontiersman out of Bahrikate (Bahri) · Owner: Castle View A Bell S Oliver M Severs

Fourth last time out and a winner four starts back, this gelding returns after 23 days having run over today's trip and on this going, and our rating of 90 ranks him top of 20. The risk is a pair of eighths in the two runs before that fourth, so consistency is the question from stall 17.

13. Metallo(5)Form: 464402

J: David Egan · T: John Butler · 5yo · 9st 7lb · OR 76 · trainer 0% (14d)

By Caravaggio out of Sweet Dreams Baby (Montjeu) · Owner: Recycled Products Limited

10/1Bet365

Metallo bounced back with a second last time out after an unplaced run, though he's yet to win in his last six and has finished fourth three times in that spell. He has run over today's trip, but 59 days off and 133 lb from stall five temper enthusiasm, and our rating of 84 puts him eighth of 20.

14. Weffaag(3)Form: 0-321

J: Tom Marquand · T: William Haggas · 3yo · 9st 7lb · OR 79 · trainer 17% (14d)

By Havana Grey out of Minoria (Harbour Watch) · Owner: ARM Racing

Weffaag won last time out, with a second and a third before that, so the form is hardly poor, and he has run over today's trip and is fresh enough after 21 days. Even so, 133 lb from draw 3 is a big ask, and our figures rank him just 15th of 20.

15. Callianassa(7)Form: 670683

J: Connor Beasley · T: Brian Ellison · 5yo · 9st 7lb · OR 76 · trainer 5% (14d)

By Invincible Army out of Doris Bleasedale (Intikhab) · Owner: P Boyle

Callianassa showed some life with a third last time out, though she is winless in her last six and was eighth two starts back, and she has run over today's trip. Our rating of 82 sits above her official 76, but the stable's 1/21 run is a worry from stall seven.

16. Sunriseontheboyne(2)Form: 607811

J: Andrew Mullen · T: Ben Haslam · 4yo · 9st 7lb · OR 76 · trainer 8% (14d)

By Cotai Glory out of Seafaring (Born To Sea) · Owner: Future Champions Racing Syn Ben Haslam

Sunriseontheboyne arrives on a double, winning last time out and again two starts back, but those came after a run of eighth, seventh and unplaced efforts, and he's ranked 16th of 20 on our figures. He has run over today's trip and going, and 133 lb from stall two adds to the task.

17. Tele Red(10)Form: 212-47

J: Sam James · T: K. R. Burke · 9yo · 9st 6lb · OR 75 · trainer 14% (14d)

By Telescope out of Hardy Blue (Red Clubs) · Owner: John Kenny

Tele Red has run over today's trip and on this going, and he arrives fresh after 28 days with a win four starts back, but a seventh last time out and a fourth two starts back show his form tailing off. Our rating of 85 sits well above his official 75, though 132 lb from stall ten is no small ask.

18. Ganodin(12)Form: 081319

J: P. J. McDonald · T: Ian Williams · 3yo · 9st 6lb · OR 78 · trainer 9% (14d)

By Anodin out of Georgia Game (George Vancouver) · Owner: Martin John Hall

Ganodin was beaten in ninth last time out, though he won two starts back and again four starts back, and he has run over today's trip and going before. Carrying 132 lb from stall 12, he is rated 47 by us, ranked 20 of 20, so he is hard to fancy.

19. Aqua Bear(20)Form: -40300

J: David Probert · T: Ian Williams · 3yo · 9st 5lb · OR 77 · trainer 9% (14d)

By Kodi Bear out of Malilla (Red Clubs) · Owner: Midtech

Aqua Bear is winless in his last five, with a third three starts back his best recent effort and unplaced in his last two, while 72 days off the track raises fitness questions. He has run over today's trip and our rating of 81 sits above his official 77, but he carries 131 lb from stall 20.

20. Miss Lady Grace(1)Form: 176118

J: Alexandra Egan(5) · T: Dan Horsford · 3yo · 9st 4lb · OR 76 · trainer 33% (14d)

By Space Blues out of Sea Of Grace (Born To Sea) · Owner: R H J Martin And Mrs J Martin

25/1Bet365

Last time out she finished eighth, which makes her hard to fancy after a break from winning ways, though she did win two and three starts back and has run over today's trip and going. Ranked 19 of 20 on our figures, she carries 130 lb from draw 1.

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