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Saturday 10 October · GB · Flat · Class 2

2:05 York

Sky Bet For The Fans Handicap Stakes (gbbplus Race)

1m2½f · Going: Soft · 20 runners · £25,770

Verdict — our pick: Grey Cuban

Grey Cuban rates just two pounds behind Thunder Run on our figures, and we prefer him on his progressive profile, which counts for plenty in a 20-runner Class 2 over ten furlongs on soft ground. Thunder Run is the obvious danger as the top-rated runner, and Paddy The Squire (109) and French Duke (107) are also within range, so this is far from a straightforward puzzle. Grey Cuban is still the one with the upward trajectory, and he can reverse the narrow rating gap if he keeps improving. Grey Cuban is our selection.

Runners & best odds

Updated 00:10

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1. Grey Cuban(14)Form: 130-23

J: David Probert · T: Hugo Palmer · 5yo · 10st 2lb · OR 107 · trainer 8% (14d)

By Havana Grey out of Serena Grae (Arakan) · Owner: Roudee Racing 10

Grey Cuban makes plenty of appeal on profile, finishing third last time out and a second two starts back, with a win five starts back, and he returns fresh after 21 days having run over today's trip and going before. Carrying 142 lb from draw 14, the weight is the one reservation.

2. Thunder Run(8)Form: 207210

J: Jack Nicholls(3) · T: K. R. Burke · 5yo · 10st 2lb · OR 107 · trainer 14% (14d)

By Night Of Thunder out of Astonished (Sea The Stars) · Owner: The Jc Organization Partner

Fresh from a win two starts back and a second three starts back, Thunder Run returns just 14 days after an unplaced effort, having run over today's trip and going before, and our rating of 114 ranks him top of 20. The main risk is that 142 lb from draw 8 leaves him plenty to carry after that latest blank.

3. Paddy The Squire(19)Form: -63202

J: Andrew Mullen · T: Iain Jardine · 6yo · 10st 0lb · OR 105 · trainer 15% (14d)

By Golden Horn out of Provenance (Galileo) · Owner: Ian Jones

Paddy The Squire arrives in sound order, second last time out and three of his last five in the first three, and he has run over today's trip and going before. He's yet to win in that spell, and carrying 140 lb from stall 19 is the main risk.

4. Yabher(4)Form: 1-1003

J: Tom Marquand · T: William Haggas · 4yo · 9st 11lb · OR 102 · trainer 17% (14d)

By Sea The Stars out of Muffri'Ha (Iffraaj) · Owner: Sheikh Juma Dalmook Al Maktoum

Yabher showed he's still in the game with a third last time out, and he's a winner four starts back and five starts back, though he's unplaced in his last two before that. Fifty days off and 137 lb from stall four temper the appeal, but he has run over today's trip and our rating of 102 ranks him seventh of 20.

5. French Duke(2)Form: 606626

J: Daniel Tudhope · T: Hamad Al Jehani · 5yo · 9st 10lb · OR 101 · trainer 13% (14d)

By Sea The Stars out of Duchess Of France (Dylan Thomas) · Owner: Wathnan Racing

French Duke has a fair case as a leading danger, having been second two starts back, with experience of today's trip and going, a 21-day break and our rating of 107 ranking him fourth of 20 against an official 101. The main risk is that he is winless in his last six, finishing sixth last time out.

6. Water To Wine(20)Form: 113

J: Luke Catton(3) · T: John & Thady Gosden · 3yo · 9st 9lb · OR 104 · trainer 32% (14d)

By Kingman out of Listen In (Sea The Stars) · Owner: George Strawbridge

Third last time out, and a winner two starts back and again three starts back, so the form is strong, though 113 days off is a concern and he has run over today's trip. Our rating of 98 ranks him 12th of 20, and 135 lb from stall 20 adds to the task.

7. Insanity(3)Form: 20-206

J: Sean Levey · T: Alan King · 6yo · 9st 6lb · OR 97 · trainer 14% (14d)

By Nathaniel out of Queen's Dream (Oasis Dream) · Owner: Mcneill Family The Spero Partnership

12/1Bet365

Sixth last time out and returning from a 63-day break, Insanity is winless in his last five, though he was second three starts back and again five starts back, and has run over today's trip and going. Carrying 132 lb from draw 3, he looks a midfield sort, with our rating of 105 the main positive.

8. Old Harrovian(9)Form: /212-6

J: P. J. McDonald · T: Andrew Balding · 7yo · 9st 6lb · OR 97 · trainer 10% (14d)

By Sea The Stars out of Daivika (Dynaformer) · Owner: Michael Blencowe

Old Harrovian arrives with a win three starts back and a second two runs ago, but he was only sixth last time out, and he has run over today's trip before. Back after 21 days off, he carries 132 lb from stall nine, with our rating of 102 ranking him eighth of 20.

9. Lord Melbourne(11)Form: -50954

J: Jason Hart · T: Ralph Beckett · 6yo · 9st 4lb · OR 95 · trainer 23% (14d)

By Wootton Bassett out of Lolldaiga (Teofilo) · Owner: Clarendon Partnership

25/1Bet365

Fourth last time out and a fifth two starts back suggest Lord Melbourne is edging toward form, and he has run over today's trip and going, but he is yet to win in his last five starts. A 42-day break and 130 lb from stall 11 temper the case, though our rating of 103 sits eight pounds above his official 95.

10. Say What You See(1)Form: 211233

J: Billy Garritty · T: Liam Bailey · 4yo · 9st 2lb · OR 93 · trainer 17% (14d)

By Belardo out of Catchphrase (Dubawi) · Owner: Oakfield Racing

Hard to fancy at 15th of 20 on our figures, despite a consistent profile: thirds last time out and two starts back, and a winner four starts back. He has run over today's trip and going, and returns after 27 days, though 128 lb from draw 1 looks a lot.

11. St Anton(12)Form: 110176

J: Joe Leavy · T: Richard Hannon · 3yo · 9st 2lb · OR 97 · trainer 8% (14d)

By Mehmas out of Jeva (Sea The Stars) · Owner: Stall Perlen Ab

18/1Bet365

St Anton won three of his last six starts, but he has been well beaten since, finishing a sixth last time out and a seventh two starts back. Back after 14 days, he carries 128 lb from draw 12, and our rating of 98 ranks him 13th of 20.

12. My Love Is King(5)Form: 1-2285

J: Robert Havlin · T: John & Thady Gosden · 3yo · 9st 1lb · OR 96 · trainer 32% (14d)

By Kingman out of Fallen In Love (Galileo) · Owner: Normandie Stud Ltd

He's lost his way since a win five starts back, with a second four and three starts back before an eighth and a fifth last time out, and 42 days off adds a fitness question. He has run over today's trip and the yard is in cracking form, though 127 lb from draw five leaves plenty to prove.

13. Shadow Road(17)Form: 412

J: David Egan · T: John Butler · 3yo · 8st 13lb · OR 94 · trainer 0% (14d)

By Lope De Vega out of Dark Crusader (Cape Cross) · Owner: Newtown Anner Stud Farm

Shadow Road's form reads well on the surface, a second last time out and a win two starts back, but he returns after 38 days, has run over today's trip, and sits 19th of 20 on our figures (89 against an official 94), which makes him hard to fancy from stall 17.

14. Have Secret(18)Form: 500045

J: Warren Fentiman(3) · T: Richard & Peter Fahey · 6yo · 8st 13lb · OR 90 · trainer 8% (14d)

By Havana Gold out of Secret Existence (Sakhee's Secret) · Owner: Peter Timmins John Rhodes Partner

Have Secret is winless in his last six, though a fifth last time out and a fourth two starts back suggest he's edging closer, and he has run over today's trip and on this going. Our rating of 101 sits above his official 90, but 125 lb from stall 18 leaves plenty to do.

15. Castle Stuart(6)Form: 023953

J: Barry McHugh · T: Richard & Peter Fahey · 4yo · 8st 12lb · OR 89 · trainer 8% (14d)

By Dubawi out of Golden Crown (Siyouni) · Owner: P D Smith Holdings Ltd

Castle Stuart was third last time out and, with a second five starts back, has hovered around the frame, yet he is winless in his last six and a ninth three starts back shows his limits. He has run over today's trip and going, and our rating of 100 sits well above his official 89, but 34 days off is a mild concern.

16. Nobody Knows(10)Form: 1-13

J: Finley Marsh · T: Richard Hughes · 3yo · 8st 12lb · OR 93 · trainer 18% (14d)

By Wootton Bassett out of Thai Haku (Oasis Dream) · Owner: Bernardine And Sean Mulryan

Third last time out, and a winner two and three starts back, Nobody Knows has the form to interest, and he has run on today's going; a 169-day absence and a 14th-of-20 ranking on our rating hold him back from a midfield position.

17. Wyld Bill(7)Form: 11-135

J: Jack Dace(5) · T: Gihan Arnolda · 5yo · 8st 11lb · OR 88 · trainer 0% (14d)

By Expert Eye out of Under The Rainbow (Fantastic Light) · Owner: Chris Housego

Wyld Bill won three of his last five starts, but he was only fifth last time out and has been off for 190 days, which is hard to overlook. He has run over today's trip and carries 123 lb from stall seven, yet our figures rank him last of 20.

18. Ancestor(15)Form: 4116

J: Harry Davies · T: William Haggas · 3yo · 8st 11lb · OR 92 · trainer 17% (14d)

By Sea The Stars out of Tidal Stream (Redoute's Choice) · Owner: Highclere Thoroughbred Racing Oak

Ancestor was only sixth last time out after back-to-back wins, and that 35-day break leaves questions over his fitness. He has run over today's trip and carries 123 lb off 92 from stall 15, but ranking 16th of 20 on our figures makes him hard to fancy.

19. Wahdan(16)Form: 634471

J: Rhys Elliott(5) · T: Tim Easterby · 5yo · 8st 9lb · OR 86 · trainer 14% (14d)

By Siyouni out of Lamorlaye (Danehill Dancer) · Owner: Aberdeen Park Partner

Wahdan won last time out, but that sits among a seventh and two fourths in his previous starts, and he has to prove it wasn't a one-off. Our rating of 92 ranks him 18th of 20, though he is fit after 16 days, has run over today's trip and goes from draw 16.

20. Stoneacre Donny(13)Form: 232915

J: Duran Fentiman · T: Tim Easterby · 3yo · 8st 7lb · OR 88 · trainer 14% (14d)

By Japan out of Iromea (Dansili) · Owner: R Teatum Partner

Stoneacre Donny was only fifth last time out, and a ninth three starts back shows how inconsistent he can be, though he did win two starts back and has run over today's trip and going. Ranked 17 of 20 on our figures, he looks hard to fancy from stall 13 off 119 lb.

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