Wednesday 26 August · GB · Flat · Class 6
3:15 Catterick
Happy 50th Birthday Victoria Melling Handicap Stakes
6f · Going: Good · 5 runners · £3,664
Verdict — our pick: Run This Way
Run This Way holds a clear edge over the field on these ratings, sitting narrowly ahead of a trio of rivals — Overbudget, Powernap and Barmyblade — who are closely matched with one another and will likely take chunks out of each other's chances over the six furlongs at Catterick. The concern is that a nine-point gap to the chasing pack does not always translate on the day, particularly in a Class 6 contest where exposed form can be turned over, and any one of those three dangers is capable of running into the frame if Run This Way fails to fire. On balance, the ratings edge and the lack of a standout rival to focus the threat make a reasonable case for the selection, though confidence is tempered by the competitive nature of the cluster beneath. Run This Way is the selection.
Runners & best odds
Updated 18:02Best available price among the bookmakers we review — tap Bet Now to claim the bookmaker's current offer.
1. Run This Way(3)Form: -71143
J: David Nolan · T: Paul Midgley · 8yo · 9st 9lb · OR 58 · trainer 13% (14d)
By Cannock Chase out of Prime Run (Dansili) · Owner: A Bell P T Midgley
Third last time out, and a winner three starts back, Run This Way carries 135 lb from stall three on familiar distance and going; our rating of 70 heads the field, and the 81-day absence is the one query.
2. Miss Willows(4)Form: 1-0028
J: Joanna Mason · T: Simon Whitaker · 7yo · 9st 8lb · OR 57 · trainer 0% (14d)
By Outstrip out of Wotatomboy (Captain Rio) · Owner: Simon Whitaker
Miss Willows was beaten well last time, and three of her last five runs make for grim reading, with only a second two starts back offering any encouragement; ranked fifth of six on our figures, she faces a stiff ask here.
3. Barmyblade(5)Form: 210147
J: David Allan · T: Tim Easterby · 4yo · 9st 8lb · OR 57 · trainer 5% (14d)
By Kodiac out of Maroubra (Lawman) · Owner: Barmyblades
Barmyblade won three starts back and won again two starts before that, showing he retains the ability to threaten at this level, and he has experience of today's distance and going with a quick turnaround of just nine days; the concern is a trainer operating at just 3% in the past fortnight.
5. Powernap(1)Form: 052218
J: Dougie Costello · T: Jessica Bedi · 3yo · 9st 4lb · OR 56 · trainer 0% (14d)
By Havana Grey out of Napping (Sleeping Indian) · Owner: V Sc Thompson
Powernap showed her class when winning two starts back, and seconds on two of her other recent efforts underline her consistency; she has run over today's trip and going, and draws stall one carrying 130 lb. The eighth last time out after 48 days off is the key risk.
6. Battenburg Belle(6)Form: 221533
J: Jason Hart · T: Rebecca Menzies · 3yo · 8st 12lb · OR 50 · trainer 0% (14d)
By Inns Of Court out of Fainleog (Rock Of Gibraltar) · Owner: Ursa Major Racing Ltd
Ranked bottom of the field on our figures, Battenburg Belle faces a stiff task, though she has experience over today's distance and going and arrives on a reasonable turnaround of 22 days, with two thirds in her last two starts suggesting she retains some consistency.
NR. Overbudget(2)Form: 283769
J: Andrew Mullen · T: Michael Appleby · 3yo · 9st 8lb · OR 60 · trainer 6% (14d)
By Mehmas out of L'Age D'Or (Iffraaj) · Owner: Matt Broughton Hold My Beer Syndicate
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