Saturday 10 October · IRE · Flat
5:15 Naas
Naas Racecourse Handicap
7f · Going: Soft · 11 runners · €15,000
Verdict — our pick: Fort Vega
Fort Vega heads our ratings on 100, four pounds clear of Key Witness on 96, and that gives him a genuine edge in an 11-runner field over seven furlongs on soft ground. Key Witness is the chief danger and sits a few pounds behind, while City House on 93 also has to be respected. Oro Blanco is the next best on 85, a fair way back, so the principal threat looks to come from the two directly below our pick. Top-rated by four pounds, Fort Vega is the selection, though only with medium confidence.
Runners & best odds
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1. Key Witness(11)Form: 21-110
J: Alan Persse(5) · T: Patrick J Flynn · 4yo · 10st 0lb · OR 93 · trainer 0% (14d)
By Acclamation out of Allegation (Lawman) · Owner: Mrs Patrick J Flynn
Key Witness won three on the bounce before an unplaced effort last time out, and he has run over today's trip and going before; our 96 ranks him second of 11. The risk is a 118-day layoff, plus 140 lb from stall 11.
2. Fort Vega(9)Form: -23290
J: Robbie Colgan · T: Ms Sheila Lavery · 6yo · 9st 12lb · OR 91 · trainer 0% (14d)
By Lope De Vega out of Prudente (Dansili) · Owner: Mrs K Lavery
Fort Vega was runner-up three starts back and again five starts back, with a third in between, and he has run over today's trip and going before, so a 28-day break after an unplaced latest looks forgivable. Our rating makes him the one to beat, though he is yet to win in his last five.
3. City House(8)Form: 840725
J: James Ryan · T: Adrian McGuinness · 5yo · 9st 6lb · OR 85 · trainer 13% (14d)
By Night Of Thunder out of Impala (Oasis Dream) · Owner: Dooley Thoroughbreds J Fairhurst
Fit after 14 days off, City House has run over today's trip and going and was second two starts back, while our rating of 93 ranks him third of eleven. The risk is he's yet to win in his last six starts and carries 132 lb from stall eight.
4. Oro Blanco(7)Form: 311843
J: Keithen Kennedy(5) · T: Mrs J. Harrington · 3yo · 9st 3lb · OR 84 · trainer 6% (14d)
By Havana Grey out of Style And Grace (So You Think) · Owner: Rebels Rogues Syndicate
Oro Blanco arrives fit after 14 days off, third last time out and a winner four and five starts back, so the form is solid and he has run over today's trip. The risk is a weight of 129 lb from draw 7, with a fourth and an eighth in between.
5. Storm Ready(5)Form: 1
J: Shane Foley · T: Mrs J. Harrington · 3yo · 9st 1lb · OR 82 · trainer 6% (14d)
By Night Of Thunder out of Yellow Rosebud (Jeremy) · Owner: J Kirkland
Won last time out, just 19 days ago, so he's fresh and in form, and he has run over today's trip before. Against that, his only recent run is that single win, and our rating of 84 ranks him fifth of 11, with 127 lb from draw 5 to carry.
6. Goal Exceeded(4)Form: 314416
J: Adam Caffrey · T: Adrian McGuinness · 5yo · 9st 0lb · OR 79 · trainer 13% (14d)
By Iffraaj out of Twinkle Twinkle (Exceed And Excel) · Owner: B White M W White Ms H Mcguinness D Sheridan
Goal Exceeded was only sixth last time out, and he has been beaten in three of his last four, so he is hard to fancy; our figures rank him tenth of 11. In his favour, he won two and five starts back, has run over today's trip and going, and is fresh enough after 18 days.
7. Zenford(1)Form: -33214
J: Ben Coen · T: J. P. Murtagh · 3yo · 8st 12lb · OR 79 · trainer 10% (14d)
By Beckford out of Lady Zen (Iffraaj) · Owner: Newtown Anner Stud Farm Ltd
Zenford was a fourth last time out, following a win two starts back and a second three starts back, so his recent form is solid, and he has run over today's trip and going. A 93-day absence and a mid-table ranking of sixth of 11 on our rating temper the appeal from stall 1.
8. Back Down Under(2)Form: 645042
J: Reese Holohan(5) · T: Padraig Roche · 5yo · 8st 10lb · OR 75 · trainer 0% (14d)
By Australia out of Back On Top (Lope De Vega) · Owner: Back Down Under Syndicate
Winless in her last six, Back Down Under is hard to fancy, though she was second last time out, 19 days ago, and has run over today's trip and going before. Ranked ninth of eleven on our figures, she carries 122 lb from stall two.
9. Flash Of Fire(6)Form: 42-748
J: Rory Mulligan(5) · T: J. P. Murtagh · 3yo · 8st 10lb · OR 77 · trainer 10% (14d)
By Wootton Bassett out of Lightening Quick (Frankel) · Owner: Qatar Racing Limited
Flash Of Fire is winless in her last five, with an eighth last time out and a fourth two starts back, so she is hard to fancy; she has run over today's trip and going and is back quickly after 11 days, but ranks last of 11 on our figures.
10. Spodo Komodo(10)Form: -02007
J: J M Sheridan · T: John James Feane · 4yo · 8st 10lb · OR 75 · trainer 0% (14d)
By Advertise out of M'As Tu Vu (Falco) · Owner: D Farrington
Seventh last time out and winless in his last five, though a second four starts back shows he can still run well, and he has run over today's trip and going. Our rating of 82 is a positive against an official mark of 75, but he carries 122 lb from stall 10 after 25 days off.
11. San Aer(3)Form: 005255
J: Julian Pietropaolo(7) · T: Ross O'Sullivan · 8yo · 8st 7lb · OR 69 · trainer 4% (14d)
By Vocalised out of Teacht An Earraig (Galileo) · Owner: Rory F Larkin
San Aer showed up with a second three starts back and has been fifth in his last two, while he has run over today's trip and going before and arrives after 32 days off. Our rating of 82 sits well above his official 69, but he is winless in recent starts and the yard is cold at 1/24.
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