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Saturday 22 August · GB · Flat · Class 2

5:20 York

Sky Bet Dav Reid Finale Handicap Stakes (Heritage Handicap) (GBBPlus Race)

1m2½f · Going: Good To Soft · 20 runners · £51,540

Verdict — our pick: Erzindjan

Erzindjan heads this competitive 21-runner York mile-and-a-quarter field on good-to-soft ground, sitting narrowly ahead of Thunder Run and Bourbon Blues on our assessments, and on a sound surface over a trip that should suit, there is a reasonable case for him to deliver. Thunder Run, just a couple of pounds below, represents the most obvious threat, while Bourbon Blues and Raammee will also need to be accounted for in a deep Class 2 heat where the margins at the top of the ratings are slim and the race is genuinely open. Confidence is tempered by the size of the field and the closeness of the form, but the edge in the ratings, however narrow, points in one direction. Erzindjan is our selection.

Runners & best odds

Updated 14:21

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1. Raammee(5)Form: 11-421

J: Ray Dawson · T: Roger Varian · 4yo · 9st 12lb · OR 103 · trainer 35% (14d)

By Persian King out of Qabala (Scat Daddy) · Owner: Sheikh Ahmed Al Maktoum

15/8Unibet

Raammee arrives on the back of a win last time out, with three wins in his last five starts painting a picture of a horse in fine fettle, and his trainer's 30% strike rate over the past fortnight adds strong support; the main risk is the 42-day absence since that victory.

2. Thunder Run(13)Form: 0-7207

J: Clifford Lee · T: K. R. Burke · 5yo · 9st 10lb · OR 101 · trainer 18% (14d)

By Night Of Thunder out of Astonished (Sea The Stars) · Owner: The Jc Organization Partner

14/1Bet365

Thunder Run arrives here rated 108 by our assessors and ranked second of 21 — a strong profile — with experience over today's trip and ground, though he carries 136 lb from stall 13 and has been winless in recent starts, including a second three starts back sandwiched by less encouraging efforts.

3. Erzindjan(11)Form: 458-16

J: Ryan Moore · T: T J Kent · 8yo · 9st 10lb · OR 101 · trainer 14% (14d)

By Lope De Vega out of Eshera (Oratorio) · Owner: Mohammed Al Suboosi

10/1Bet365

Erzindjan won two starts back and has experience of today's trip and going, giving him a solid profile under 136 lb; the 66-day absence is worth noting, but his rating of 110 marks him as the one to beat.

4. Diego El Queso(16)Form: 3-2126

J: Gary Carroll · T: G M Lyons · 4yo · 9st 9lb · OR 100 · trainer 7% (14d)

By Blue Point out of Standing Rock (Fastnet Rock) · Owner: Woodridge Partnership

Diego El Queso showed smart form with a win three starts back and a runner-up finish two starts back, but his sixth last time out tempers confidence; he has run over today's trip and going, carries 135 lb from stall 16, and our rating of 102 suggests he holds claims without dominating.

5. Dain Ma Nut In(17)Form: 0-1702

J: Lexie Clarkson(7) · T: Lucinda Russell & Michael Scudamore · 5yo · 9st 7lb · OR 98 · trainer 0% (14d)

By Phoenix Of Spain out of Jive Lady (Exceed And Excel) · Owner: Lamont Racing

33/1Bet365

Placed last time out and a winner four starts back, Dain Ma Nut In has experience of today's distance and going in his favour, though he must shoulder 133 lb from stall 17 and our rating of 94 leaves him with ground to find on the pick of these.

6. Al Aali(9)Form: 875511

J: William Buick · T: George Scott · 4yo · 9st 7lb · OR 98 · trainer 14% (14d)

By City Light out of La Zubia (Montjeu) · Owner: Victorious Forever

12/1Bet365

Back-to-back wins give Al Aali strong recent momentum, and he has run over today's trip before, but a rating of 97 and a tendency to struggle in the deeper stages of his recent sequence give pause, with 133 lb from stall nine adding to the ask.

7. Quai De Bethune(7)Form: 31-600

J: James Doyle · T: Hamad Al Jehani · 4yo · 9st 3lb · OR 94 · trainer 14% (14d)

By Persian King out of Edavanna (Wootton Bassett) · Owner: Wathnan Racing

40/1Bet365

Quai De Bethune has run over today's distance and going, and a win four starts back gives his record some substance, but two unplaced efforts in his last two starts are a concern at 129 lb from stall seven against a field of 21.

9. Bourbon Blues(19)Form: -30602

J: Oisin Murphy · T: Brian Meehan · 3yo · 9st 2lb · OR 100 · trainer 0% (14d)

By Space Blues out of Upper Street (Dansili) · Owner: M Hughes M Kerr Dineen And Partners

18/1Bet365

Bourbon Blues shaped with plenty of promise when second last time out, and he has experience over today's trip and going, with our rating of 107 putting him right in the mix; the concern is that he has been winless in his last five starts.

10. Have Secret(12)Form: -51500

J: Jamie Spencer · T: Richard & Peter Fahey · 6yo · 9st 2lb · OR 93 · trainer 16% (14d)

By Havana Gold out of Secret Existence (Sakhee's Secret) · Owner: Peter Timmins John Rhodes Partner

Have Secret won in his last five starts but has been unplaced in his two most recent outings, so he arrives needing to rediscover some form after 42 days off; experience over today's trip and going is a plus, though 128 lb from stall 12 adds to his task.

11. Parole d'Oro(14)Form: 2-8247

J: Rossa Ryan · T: Michael Bell · 4yo · 9st 1lb · OR 92 · trainer 0% (14d)

By Without Parole out of Pretty Paper (Medaglia d'Oro) · Owner: Mme Isabelle Corbani

40/1Bet365

Winless in his last five starts, Parole d'Oro does show a second three starts back to give connections hope, though a seventh last time out is the concern heading into this; he has run over today's trip and arrives fresh enough on 25 days' rest carrying 127 lb from stall 14.

12. Accredit(20)Form: 311-

J: Colin Keane · T: John & Thady Gosden · 3yo · 9st 1lb · OR 99 · trainer 25% (14d)

By Dubawi out of Entitle (Dansili) · Owner: Juddmonte

12/1Bet365

A long absence of 309 days is the obvious concern for Accredit, and our figures rank him last of the 21 runners; however, his recent form does include back-to-back wins, and he has experience of today's going.

13. Mr Swivell(10)Form: -70428

J: Cieren Fallon · T: Kevin Philippart De Foy · 5yo · 9st 1lb · OR 92 · trainer 7% (14d)

By City Light out of How High The Sky (Danehill Dancer) · Owner: Stuart Wood

Winless in his last five starts, Mr Swivell at least posted a second two runs back and has experience of today's trip and going, though that eighth last time out is harder to ignore; 127 lb from stall 10 makes life no easier for a gelding ranked eighth of twenty-one.

14. Castle Stuart(3)Form: 660239

J: Barry McHugh · T: Richard & Peter Fahey · 4yo · 8st 13lb · OR 90 · trainer 16% (14d)

By Dubawi out of Golden Crown (Siyouni) · Owner: P D Smith Holdings Ltd

Winless in his last six starts, Castle Stuart does at least bring distance and going experience to the table, and a third and a second in recent outings show ability — but that ninth last time out is a concern, and a rating of 95 ranked twelfth of twenty-one suggests he faces a stiff task here.

15. Dhahabi(21)Form: /00-00

J: Charles Bishop · T: Ian Williams · 8yo · 8st 13lb · OR 90 · trainer 5% (14d)

By Frankel out of Fleche D'Or (Dubai Destination) · Owner: Sundowners

300/1Bet365

Winless in his last four starts and drawn in stall 21, Dhahabi faces an uphill task with the trainer firing at just five per cent recently, though he has experience of today's trip and conditions and returns on a manageable 25-day break carrying 125 lb.

16. Sujet(18)Form: 720002

J: Zak Wheatley · T: Declan Carroll · 4yo · 8st 12lb · OR 89 · trainer 0% (14d)

By Frankel out of Tendu (Oasis Dream) · Owner: Steve Ryan

150/1Bet365

Winless in his last six starts, with unplaced efforts dominating a record that only two runner-up finishes relieve, Sujet is hard to fancy from stall 18 on these figures, though he has run over today's going before and returns after a 42-day break with conditions not entirely against him.

17. Shafdar(6)Form: 201064

J: David Egan · T: Ian Williams · 4yo · 8st 12lb · OR 89 · trainer 5% (14d)

By Make Believe out of Shafia (Le Havre) · Owner: The Green Bar Owners

Ranked well down the field on our figures and representing a trainer in poor current form, Shafdar is hard to fancy on bare merit, though he does return just three weeks after his last run and recorded a win four starts back to show he retains ability.

18. Dark Moon Rising(2)Form: 524501

J: Shane Gray · T: Kevin Ryan · 7yo · 8st 10lb · OR 87 · trainer 3% (14d)

By Night Of Thunder out of Al Nassa (Bernardini) · Owner: Mrs Angie Bailey

Dark Moon Rising won last time out but has been largely out of the frame in recent starts otherwise, and with his trainer firing at just 4% over the past fortnight and he ranking 17th of 21 on our figures, there is little here to inspire confidence despite his experience over today's trip and going.

19. Salam Dubawi(4)Form: 103D40

J: Lauren Young(5) · T: Jim Goldie · 4yo · 8st 9lb · OR 86 · trainer 13% (14d)

By Dubawi out of Palmarola (Sea The Stars) · Owner: Johnnie Delta Racing

Ranked 20 of 21 on our figures, Salam Dubawi is hard to fancy after finishing unplaced last time out, with a fourth two starts back and a disqualification three starts back blotting his recent record; he has run over today's trip and returns on a reasonable 28-day break, but his profile offers little encouragement.

21. Rainbow Nebula(8)Form: 015650

J: Cam Hardie · T: Richard & Peter Fahey · 4yo · 8st 8lb · OR 85 · trainer 16% (14d)

By Hello Youmzain out of Quara (Pivotal) · Owner: Peter Timmins

80/1Bet365

Rainbow Nebula won five starts back but has been unplaced, fifth, or sixth in his four subsequent outings, suggesting he is out of form; experience over today's trip and going gives him a foothold, though 42 days off and a rating of 85 make improvement hard to envisage.

22. Double Parked(15)Form: 730315

J: Saffie Osborne · T: Tim Easterby · 4yo · 8st 7lb · OR 84 · trainer 5% (14d)

By Bated Breath out of Coppa D'Oro (Lope De Vega) · Owner: Linkenholt Racing Two Partner

50/1Bet365

Fifth last time out tempers any enthusiasm for Double Parked, and his trainer's woeful recent strike-rate of 5% gives little confidence; he has run over today's trip and going, but ranked 16 of 21 on our figures, he is hard to fancy from stall 15.

NR. King's Code(22)Form: 005188

J: Alexandra McDonnell(7) · T: David Evans · 6yo · 9st 3lb · OR 94 · trainer 13% (14d)

By Saxon Warrior out of Polygon (Dynaformer) · Owner: Eric Griffiths P D Evans

40/1Bet365

NR. Nepal(1)Form: 5-8104

J: Joanna Mason · T: Ivan Furtado · 4yo · 8st 8lb · OR 85 · trainer 0% (14d)

By Camacho out of Body Language (Beat Hollow) · Owner: Jps Sarah Harrison Lamb

125/1Coral

Ranked near the foot of the field on our figures, Nepal faces a stiff ask here — a winner three starts back, he was unplaced next time and fourth last time out, and a speed rating of 82 does little to inspire confidence, even if he has distance and going experience and lines up fresh enough from stall one.

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