Nottingham Forest vs Leeds Betting Tips & Preview

Pre-match analysis, as published 24 August 2026

Nottingham Forest to win

Forest are the pick to get one over on Leeds in this Carabao Cup second-round tie, with home advantage and a slightly stronger recent body of work tipping the balance their way. It's not an overwhelming case — the model has this at 44.3% against Leeds' share of the remainder — but across the data available, Forest edge it as the single most probable result on the night. The two sides met just three days before this fixture with Leeds coming out on top, and while that will sting locally, cup football has a habit of throwing up different stories in quick succession, and there's enough in Forest's underlying form and head-to-head record to make backing them again the sounder call rather than an emotional one.

Recent Form

Forest's last five completed matches make for a mixed bag: a defeat away at Aston Villa, back-to-back draws against Newcastle United and Bournemouth at the City Ground, a loss on the road to Manchester United, and then that reverse against Leeds just days ago. Two wins have been notably absent from that sample, and the draws suggest a side capable of holding its own without always finding the cutting edge needed to close matches out.

Leeds, by contrast, arrive with more W's on the board. They beat Burnley, drew at Tottenham, beat Brighton at home, lost away at West Ham, and then completed a fifth-fixture sweep of Forest with that win just gone. On paper Leeds look the in-form side of the two, but form lines built partly on games against varying opposition don't always translate cleanly, and Forest's home form specifically still gives them a route back into this one.

Head-to-Head

The head-to-head picture over the last five meetings actually favours Forest slightly, with a 2-0-3 record in Forest's favour from their perspective — two wins, no draws, three defeats. Leeds have taken the last meeting, back in February, and now the most recent one too, but Forest have shown they can beat this opponent when it matters, including a win at the City Ground in November 2025. It's a fixture with a bit of needle to it historically, rarely straightforward, and the recent dominance from Leeds hasn't been built on one-sided scorelines as far as the data here shows — just results going their way in the moments that count.

Team News

Team news is fairly light for both sides based on what's been confirmed. Nottingham Forest are without Willy Boly, who has been sidelined since February with a knee injury. Leeds United are missing Mateo Joseph, out since April with a cruciate ligament tear. Beyond those two, there are no notable absences reported for either club heading into this one, so neither manager should be short of options to pick a strong side.