Nottingham Forest vs Leeds Betting Tips & Preview

Nottingham Forest to win

Forest are the pick to see off Leeds United when the two meet in the Premier League this weekend, and it's a call built as much on the balance of recent history as anything else. Our model puts Forest's win probability at 47.7%, comfortably the most likely of the three outcomes even before factoring in a head-to-head record that leans their way. Backing them at odds of 2.32 isn't about chasing a discrepancy between that price and the model's number — it's simply that, of the three results on offer, Forest winning is the one that stacks up best given how both sides have been playing and how this fixture has typically gone.

Recent Form

Neither side arrives in what you'd call rampant form, but there are threads worth pulling on. Forest's last five have been a mixed bag: a win away at Chelsea was followed by defeats to Aston Villa and Manchester United, either side of draws against Newcastle United and Bournemouth. That's one win, two draws and two losses — hardly imposing, but it does include a genuinely strong result against a big-name opponent, and the two draws suggest a team that isn't easy to beat even when it isn't at its best.

Leeds United's recent run reads similarly uneven. They lost to Chelsea, beat Burnley, drew with Tottenham Hotspur, beat Brighton & Hove Albion, then lost again, this time to West Ham United. Two wins, one draw and two defeats puts them roughly level with Forest on paper, though the manner of that West Ham loss as their most recent outing leaves a slightly flatter note heading into this one. Both teams, in short, look capable of good days and bad ones in fairly equal measure — which is exactly why the head-to-head trend and home advantage carry some weight here.

Head-to-Head

Forest hold the upper hand in this fixture historically, winning three of the last five meetings with Leeds losing two and the rest going the other way — there have been no draws in this particular set of head-to-heads. Forest won the most recent home meeting between the sides back in November 2025, while Leeds' victories have tended to come when hosting, as in February 2026 and back in April 2023. That pattern of the home side generally getting the nod adds a bit more weight to Forest's case this time out, given the match is being played at the City Ground.

Going further back, Forest also won the corresponding fixture in February 2023 and again in February 2020, both at home. It's a small sample, but the trend is consistent enough to be worth noting: Leeds have found this venue tough going in recent history, and Forest have generally delivered when given home advantage in this particular matchup.

Team News

Team news is fairly light for both sides based on what's been confirmed. Nottingham Forest are without Willy Boly, who has been sidelined since February 2026 with a knee injury and remains a long-term absentee. Leeds United, meanwhile, are missing Mateo Joseph, who has been out since April 2026 with a cruciate ligament tear — a serious injury that will keep him out for the foreseeable future. Beyond those two, there are no further absences reported for either club, so both managers should otherwise have close to full squads to choose from for this one.