An Introductory Strategy on Political Betting
In case you ever get tired of betting on sports, the betting operators will always treat you with speciality betting markets such as political betting.
Betting and politics came almost naturally and, contrary to public opinion, it stands as one of the most popular betting markets around. With world politics being a fluent, ever-changing market filled with every-day affairs worth wagering a bet or two, the political betting process is the most intense during the election years or in times of big global shifts such as UK’s Brexit vote or the Scottish independence referendum.
Before you delve into the world of political betting, it is important to come up with a strategy and a sound plan to follow. It is assumed that political betting will initially attract people with existing political knowledge. However, global affairs – and the latest United States presidential elections are the biggest proof – tend to draw in a wide array of bettors who just enjoy the spectacle of it.
What to look for when betting on Political Markets
Agendas aside – it doesn’t matter if you plan on having a laugh or if you are a committed political analyst – the steps you make need to stay the same.
- Understand the market
- Make timely decisions
- Avoid ‘expert’ opinions
- Listen to the opinion polls
- Compare odds
The political betting market is enormous. To put things into perspective straight away, it is enough to say that punters tend to invest millions in betting on politics which usually gets spread across two main political sub-markets.
Politics in the British Isles draws incredible attention around the globe. A lot of people still think of it as the governing body of the most powerful country, which in its own wake, has been making some controversial political moves of late with Brexit being the biggest of them all.
The UK political market requires a strategy which will rely on knowledgeable moves and educated guesses, which should strongly be linked with opinion polls. They are easily accessed and researched and can provide a deep insight into a more common judgement that can help you with placing bets on political events.
Democrats against Republicans has been the biggest fighting ground for political bettors ever since this form of online betting has been introduced. You can bet on it – the great majority – if not all – of elections, starting from the local levels and up to the federal and state frames will result in a person from either side winning it.
The United States Presidential Election 2016 was one of the most followed betting markets thanks to Donald Trump, who made it all so much more interesting. The greatest strategy which helped US political bettors help achieve winning bets relied on the understanding of the candidates’ value. Trump had a clear edge over Clinton in that regard, being a controversial figure and publicly perceived from different business angles.
Whether you go for the UK or US market – or for some other less illustrious markets – one thing to take care of is timing. A week’s time is a long period in politics as it can and will result in unpredictable shifts of popularity and odds leaning toward certain candidates or parties.
The 2016 US Presidential Election was once again the great example of how timing can be of crucial importance in political betting. Hillary Clinton was made early favourite and casino-owner and reality star Donald Trump was seen as an underdog with most of the polls and betting operators. Trump’s dramatic rise to front-runner resulted in a major shift of odds, which ultimately produced big payouts and huge return for those who decided to make a timely investment in an early underdog.
Similarly, there is great value in waiting until the election day itself as it often ends up offering great value, as the results from different poll stations begin to arrive.
Expert opinions are important, but only when it comes to forming public opinion. The most important thing to remember is that you don’t need to be into politics to make great predictions and – unlike most sports – politics does not require thorough research and analysis.
Firstly, because you won’t have much to go by as statistics, head-to-head numbers and current form play little part in determining the winner of a political race. Secondly, it is quite easy to make educated deductions just by a scratch on the surface, despite the governments throwing great funds on research and superforcasting.
Over the past decade or so, there have been a number of studies which show that political experts have it all wrong more than 60% of the time. A 20-year study was looking at political predictions made by over 280 well-educated and experienced political analysts which ended up not doing any better than you tossing a coin on a bet.
Opinion polls have been disputed and argued over the past period to that extent that it was claimed betting operators were more accurate and precise on political outcomes with their odds. The public opinion and media organisations tend to follow the line, but do your own research to make sure that in 99% of the time opinion polls will provide extremely accurate presumptions of a political event.
A good betting strategy is comprised of individual elements which do not work separately, and in order to have a sound operative strategy, all of them need to come in cohesion. Therefore, in addition to relying on opinion polls, you still need to have a constant look at the odds and do a little bit of shopping around to find the best value for your previously assessed bets.
Stay informed on the current political affairs and on where the best odds can be found, which can only be achieved by visiting a couple of different betting sites. Register at three or four different operators, benefit from their welcome bonuses and enjoy good value bets.