A Betting Strategy for the NFL

Published: 23rd September 2018
Author: Joe Kizlauskas
Last Updated: 30th March 2021
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A Betting Strategy for the NFL

American football and the National Football League (NFL) in particular have long expanded their popularity outside the United States borders and established as one of the most followed sports in the world.

With more and more NFL games planned and played in the United Kingdom, the European market has become increasingly infatuated by the sport, which is now one of the most popular betting options as well.

The NFL features a lot of games each season and with the great number comes the sharp thinking from the betting operators who keep their offers quite sharp to gain an advantage over the ever-increasing number of people betting on NFL every day.

In order to beat the odds and get value from NFL betting one needs to create a sound betting strategy and a plan to stick to while wagering money on different outcomes. Using NFL betting sites can be highly profitable once you catch all of the details and make them work in your favour.

But before you come remotely close to becoming a betting success, you need to master the skill of self-discipline, organisation, commitment and composure.

Research is the first and most important part of any betting strategy and NFL is no different. The NFL research implies getting to know the bits and details of this beautiful sport, as well as teams, players, first-team stars and coaching staff.

The rigorous statistical analysis is also required as it gives you great insight into the winning probability. With so many games every year, thorough statistical analysis can offer a deep insight and a rather accurate view of the outcomes.

Organisation in terms of your bankroll management is essential. We suggest you go to make weekly bankrolls, monthly ones or even season-long bankrolls which should – in no case – be breached.
Bet with your mind and not with your heart as that is the only recipe for success.

What to look for when betting on American Football

The more detailed advice you can get to make your NFL betting strategy a more successful one deal with specific betting moves you are urged to make in order to make value of your bets. Some of the more concrete and direct approaches to the betting process itself are:

  • Analyse the yardage differential
  • Bet on underdogs and unders
  • Follow the reverse line movement
  • Exploit smaller markets
  • Go line shopping

If we are to analyse the NFL at its most essential level, we would say that it is a sport of movement. You either try to go forward and win yards offensively or sit tight to prevent the other team from doing the same thing, defensively.

Obviously, if we are to assess the true strength of an NFL side, it should be enough to have a look at their yards per play coefficient and the average yards allowed per play in the defensive sense of the word. Teams which gain more yards and allow least tend to win games, so they should be a safe and secure bet. Naturally, this analytical approach is not the most accurate one, but it can provide a valuable insight.

The team which has the better yardage differential usually wins and is usually marked as a favourite, but it would not be called betting and gambling if rules were blindly applied to it. Favourites tend to generate the biggest attention from the public and from the greatest number of bettors, but they also allow bookies to generate the most profits off of them.

If you want to set yourself up as someone who is not considered an ordinary and an average bettor, you better go well beyond the obvious and try to find cracks in the mould. It is not that you should always fade the public opinion but shading the favourites and overs can be a wise option for a competition which offers little disparity between the quality of the teams involved in a game.

This is where we come to the reverse line movement, betting against the public view and just going the other direction. When you have a massive line movement it is better to either steer off from investing your money in it or to bet against it.

This is particularly interesting with In-Play betting when bookies will often go from backing the favourite to backing the underdog if the game opens the wrong way. A sharp move would be to exploit the exact moment and grab the favourable odds before the market adjusts and rebalances.

Another particular option that can yield good results is betting on home underdogs as it goes well up to 60% for these teams and double-digit spread betting.

For all of those who want to avoid getting caught up in usual markets like game totals or winners betting where the bookies will focus their attention due to the biggest interest from the bettors, smaller markets will often be neglected by the bookmakers themselves, who will end up offering odds that are exceeding the true value of thae bet. Recognise those markets, grab those odds and make money on prop bets which indeed are the bookmaker’s weak spots.

Whether it about those prop bets and small markets, or main betting options, line shopping is a must. It is particularly important to look around and compare odds through various betting venues to compare odds on smaller markets as that is usually where the biggest value will be hidden.

Avoid using favouritism in your betting predictions. This is not a good way of thinking as is it not always going to guarantee you a win. It can be difficult sometimes if the team you support are playing, especially if they aren’t the favourites, because it means that they are not likely to win in the opinions of the bookmaker, but because you support them, you want to back them. Whenever your team plays, it is natural to want to be on them, but you do need to consider other options.

This is not to say you cannot back the NFL underdogs because it can be the case that they come out victorious, but make sure there is method to your decision.

Some bookmakers allow the use of NFL live betting. Over the course of the NFL season, you may notice fixtures, such as the Superbowl, can have live bets placed no it. Which means that as the game is being played, you are able to place bets on it.

We strongly suggest you sign up at several best betting sites, including those that offer live streaming NFL services – grab their great welcome bonus offers – and place money on selections you previously checked, compared and chose to add the greatest value to your bets and maximise the potential winnings. This aspect of the betting strategy will allow you to remain on top of your betting process and always be one step ahead of the bookies.

American Football Outrights

  • NFL Futures
  • NCAAF Futures
  • CFL Futures
  • AAF Futures

NFL Competitions

There are different NFL competitions that really get bookies excited, making them bring out some awesome promotions. The Super Bowl is a perfect example. When this event is soon to be played, a lot of top sportsbooks will create a promotional offer around the fixture.

Paddy Power love to get involved, with some of their previous bonus offers including a £20 Risk-Free Bet. What better way to get into NFL betting as a beginner? Being able to use a Free Bet, but it also being risk free. As an obvious betting tip, offers like these are no brainers. Profit betting is the aim for all customers, that is why these offers are here for the taking, to help you achieve that.

The likes of SportNation and 888Sport are also bookmakers offering generous promotions around the sport. SportNation with their £10 No Deposit Free Bet! This is huge for any punter and then also 888Sport offer enhanced odds on the Super Bowl.

If you are wanting to look at other live sports betting guides that we offer, take a look at the football betting systems and strategy, how to bet on horse racing or even our live sports betting guide.

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About Joe Kizlauskas

Joe is a seasoned iGaming copywriter and speaker who has been in the business since 2015. He's written more words on all elements of iGaming than he likes to remember, and he's contributed material to a number of well-known brands. Joe may be seen playing 5 a side, at the gym or playing games on his Playstation when he is not writing.