Author: Joe Kizlauskas
Last Updated: 4th March 2021
Table of Contents
How to Bet on the Draws Market
Football is a sport that offers a particular rush which is generally associated with goals and winners. Football fans and bettors alike would often find draws – and betting on draws – tedious and inconsequential which should not be the case.
However, betting on draws still remains a far cry from conviction betting or a character trait, but more and more punters who go out and do their research right are starting to bet their money on draws and what’s more important win off those analgesic betting selections.
Draws are often underestimated by bookmakers as well as it seems as if they are considered to be less likely outcomes than a win on each side of the turf, which can hardly be justified through the possibility percentage. An unbiased assessment will give equal chances to each of the three possible outcomes of a football game despite the form, quality, home advantage, team news and head-to-head record which – more often than expected – come to nothing in the process of betting.
In fact, draws are a fairly common outcome in a football game and several studies have proven that the total number of draws in a single season (a couple of years ago) from 125 leagues worldwide would range from as low as 8% and up to whopping 41%. An average value of these numbers is somewhere around 24.5% which is fair enough.
What is more, these numbers tend to go up depending on the competition in question. In order to put them in the right perspective, it is fair to mention that the overall average draw rate at the UEFA European Championship qualifiers and the main event plus the FIFA World Cup finals and qualifiers before that is considerably higher and can go up to 33%.
Predicting a Draw
Predicting draws is tough and experienced punters are usually those who will get down to the business of seeking that special thrill that comes from a successfully hit draw bet.
In order to get at least close to becoming proficient at betting on draws, several preconditions must be fulfilled and met:
- Careful league/team selection
- Looking at equivalent strengths
- Thorough pre-match preparation
- Deep insight into statistics
- Average number of goals scored/conceded
Predicting draws requires considerable knowledge and although most punters will be more comfortable with predicting wins, the aforementioned preconditions can help you secure a valuable edge to beat the match outcome probability in a way.
The key to getting successful at predicting a draw is having specific information gathered through thorough careful selection of a league, competition and match selection. Pre-match preparation deals with looking at key factors such as potential key players missing, potential tactical solutions from a manager who wants to save some of the better players for future games, injury news and form guides. Additionally, a deeper look into statistics can provide valuable insight, more so when head-to-head statistics are in question and the average amount of goals a team scores and concedes during a given season.
To support the final aspect of the analysis, there is a number of 2.57 as an average number of goals scored in United Kingdom football league and Premier League as well. In regard to draws and stalemates, the results indicate that around 26% of the UK games tend to end in equal scores. Naturally, low-scoring sides tend to be more commonly involved in draws so there tends to be a negative correlation between the total number of goals scored and the number of draws a team gets involved in.
Punters will deploy different tactics and systems to ensure their draw bets are successful. One of the most common tactics is the betting progression, a mathematical succession of bets according to the Fibonacci sequence.
The Fibonacci sequence can be successfully applied on draw bets as odds for such an outcome often exceed a price of 2.70. Fibonacci sequence implies a progressive increase of stakes after a losing bet. The sequence must follow a unique pattern: 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21 and so on with each number being a sum of the two preceding numbers.
The idea behind the Fibonacci sequence is for players to keep increasing their wager until they win, with the idea that the ultimate bet will annul the previous losses. The similar principle is utilised through another betting system called the Martingale strategy. It is another mathematics-based betting system which applies a different set of numbers with each number being the double-value of the previous one: 1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32, 64, 128 etc. If you were to start the betting sequence with a £10, the following stake on the losing draw bet would have to be £20, then £40, £80, £160, £320 and so on.
The biggest downside to Fibonacci sequence and Martingale strategy alike is that they require a rather substantial betting bankroll. Eight consecutive bets on the Martingale system will cost you the total of £2,550, whereas the sum is slightly lower with Fibonacci – £520. However, winning your eighth bet in the Martingale system on the odds of let’s say 2.80 will result in a £3,584 win, which makes your total profit: £3,584 – £2,550 = £1,034.
The two aforementioned betting systems are best applied by punters who create a sound betting strategy and pre-determine the amount of money they are willing to spend on betting. Arranging your bankroll and betting budget is crucial with betting in general and most of all with betting on draws where you can get a bit discouraged by a potential losing streak.
Ultimately, you can always bet on draws using system betting. Anything like 3, 4 and 5 out of 5 betting system will help you spread your bet in 16 columns. Three successfully hit draws will yield just enough to cover your initial bet and spare something on the side, whereas 4 and all 5 selections won result in big-money wins.
For those who are unwilling to invest great amounts of money in following Fibonacci and Martingale, this system might be just the perfect solution.