Author: Joe Kizlauskas
Last Updated: 26th January 2021
Assessing Winning Streaks
In order to address every angle of the subject in question, we are going to take a two-sided approach and deal with different kinds of winning streaks.
Before we roll our sleeves up and get down on it, it is worth taking note that sports bettors, and in our area of interest footballer bettors, in particular, love betting according to streaks. Whether they see a team winning on the trot or they get on a roll of their own it is exactly the same – punters will continue to push the bets assuming that they are going to keep winning.
Whatever the case, luck has a bit part in it as we will tend to believe Lady Luck is smiling on us and gracing us with her kind and fortunate touch for a blessed streak. However, the main thing with betting in general and in betting on football as well is that luck plays an insignificant part – if any – in the very process.
Things are not as straightforward and banal as luck, so any kind of a winning streak simply needs to come to its natural end at some point. One should never blindly believe that a streak can continue for good and several different factors will need to be analysed in order to establish any form of pattern that will allow us to properly assess winning streaks.
We mentioned it before, two different types of winning streaks are assessed here – a team’s winning streak and a bettor’s winning streak. These two offer different perspectives and need to be approached separately so it is only fair to do it in a single betting article.
Assessing Teams’ Winning Streaks
Betting is all about taking knowledge of a sport – preferably football – and applying it properly. Even the most casual punter will dive into the betting world with knowledge of a given sport that would allow him to understand that assessing whether a team can win in a row – and ultimately put money in your pocket in a row too – depends on various factors.
The most obvious aspect to take into consideration is the strength of a team. The players’ quality, team’s quality and squad depth are some of the evident ones. However, several aspects like playing style, performing under pressure, the mental strength of both players and manager, are all accessed with a slight scratch on the surface but can be of great importance to assessing the possible winning streak. Current form and momentum is perhaps the most argued-about factor. Momentum is believed to be of huge importance and value to team’s morale and confidence, which is why this for some meaningless aspect is believed to be able to cause a positive chain reaction that can spark and uphold the winning streak.
Some rather important aspects to consider when assessing a winning streak and predicting a sustainable one will not be directly connected to a team’s quality or form. But, they will do more than enough to have an inexperienced eye believing that it is all Lady Luck’s fortune.
The first thing you need to do with assessing a possible winning streak for a team of your choice is to analyse the schedule. Pay attention to possible runs of easy schedules and favourable matchups that will see your team play teams that are considered as underdogs and minnows.
Next up are the in-team changes that are usually caused by injuries, suspensions or bans and punters need to pay particular attention to any big-name changes in the fold as it can either spark or effectively end a winning streak.
Winning streaks themselves will have a different effect on a team and opposition alike so these are also several aspects to take into consideration. Some players who are not exactly thriving under pressure will find winning streaks to be a burden and obligation to continue in the same rhythm. That can ultimately push them into making unconscious errors and unwillingly ending the streak.
Same goes for rivals, who can become so afraid that they will go against a team carrying a white flag in advance. Others will be especially motivated and could ultimately end up playing above their abilities since streaks can be extremely motivating and encourage their rivals as well.
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Assessing Bettors’ Winning Streak
Any bettor who follows the teams’ winning streaks will find their own streaks strongly linked and mutually dependent.
However, the more independent types of bettors who like to operate on a more systematic model will try to put a bit of science behind the possibility of getting on a winning streak – and ultimately to get out of a losing one – on a particular bet regardless of the team. Such bettors will always bet on one selection – like a home win, or in some other cases on particular odds – let’s take the example of 2.22. Mathematical statistics can calculate many things and streaks of wins are definitely on the list. It is important to remember that calculations present a model and a representation of theory which is never a hundred per cent accurate.
In order to determine and assess a winning streak unrelated to one team, in particular, is all about probability. Assessing what could happen based on knowledgeable guesses and not what will happen based on intuitive selections is the key. Such assessments eventually lose the battle against probability which triumphs in long sequences. Roll of a die is the best way to explain it.
A dice has six faces and your chances of successfully landing a chosen number are 1 in 6 chance, which stands at 16.67%. With a three-way outcome such as a football game, the number stands at 33% or 1 in 3 chance.
Assessing the timing of your streak of wins will come to an end is done through a mathematical formula where you divide 1 by P and put it all to the power of A, with P being the probability and A being a number of won bets in a row.
If we are to take a look at a Home Win at the odds of 2.22, the formula will tell us that we can expect a 45% hit rate and that we could also expect to get a sequence of 3 wins in a row during a series of 11 bets, whereas winning five in a row may occur once in every 54 bets. Hitting 10 in a row is a far-fetch occurrence which could happen once in 2,937 bets.
Numbers like these can be a bit discouraging, but what the formula doesn’t take into account is a notion that not every Home Win at 2.22 betting odds come with equal betting value, which can only be truly determined and put to good use with informed judgments and knowledge behind a betting decision.
Not that discouraging now, right?